SotD, Monday 10th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th August 2015

I went with Gowanharry on Saturday, partly because of trainer Micheal Dods’s record in handicaps at Ayr and with his two runners finishing 1st and 2nd in our featured race, the proof was in the proverbial pudding.

To my naked eye, the margin of victory looked more than the official neck declared and thankfully it was our runner that prevailed and she appealed to still have something in hand at the finish.

She had been well supported thoughout the day, which made our advised 11/4 BOG odds look very good indeed, as she was returned a 6/4 winner.

That meant we had 4 winners from 6 last week, but Monday starts a new week, the slate is wiped clean and we start all over again in the…

6.00 Thirsk :

A 10-runner, Class 4 , 5 furlong sprint for 2 yr olds on good to firm ground where the presence of a very short favourite means we can avail ourselves of some of the 5/1 BOG on offer for Ralph (Raif) Beckett’s colt Point of Woods, who aims to go one better than when rattling the crossbar at York a little over a fortnight ago.

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Regular readers of my column will know that Mondays are generally low on quality, numbers of runners and potential statistical angles to explore. They also know that I’m quite fond of using trainers like Ralph Beckett, because he has such a large number of runners historically to work from.

And so, on another tricky Monday, we’re back with Ralph and the obvious starting point, which is something I’ve advised you to do in the past…

…back all his runners!

Really. Back them all. And if you’d done so since the start of 2008, this is where’d you be : 493 winners from 3044 bets, a very healthy 16.2% strike rate bearing level stakes profits (LSP) of some 567.6pts at an ROI of 18.7%. These are truly remarkable figures from blindly backing around 400 per year, but I do appreciate that might be a little too much action for some of you, so we’ll break the 3044 bets down as follows…

  • non-hcps : 271/1591 (17% SR) for 448.6pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • maidens : 215/1160 (18.5% SR) for 322.5pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds : 143/938 (15.2% SR) for 292.6pts (+31.2% ROI)
  • Class 4 : 119/784 (15.2% SR) for 101 pts at an ROI of 12.9%

For a small microsystem generating around 85-90 bets a year, backing Ralph Beckett’s 2yo maidens (like Point of Woods!) gives 108 winners from 666 (16.2% SR, in line with his overall SR) and profits of 271.5pts (+40.8% ROI).

Point of Woods is Ralph’s only runner here at Thirsk today and since 2008, he has sent 1386 horses to run on thier own at a track and the 248 winners givess a very respectable 17.9% win ratio that has so far generated 335.7pts of profit at an ROI of 24.2%, which is very good indeed. It should also be noted that of those 1386 sole travellers, 590 of them were Ralph’s only runner of the day like Point of Woods is today.

Of those 590 single entrants, 117 (19.8% SR) have been winners and they have produced LSP of 170.3pts at an ROI of 28.9% to date.

Point of Woods is by Showcasing, whose offsapring have done really well over the last two seasons, since his first foal hit the track in April 2014. TO be more precise, his progeny are 79/474 (16.7% SR) for 22.6pts profits (+47% ROI), broken down as follows…

  • 2yr olds : 59/309 (18.1% SR) for 168.1pts (+54.4% ROI)
  • maidens : 41/219 (18.7% SR) for 160pts (+73.1% ROI)
  • 2yo maidens : 34/185 (18.4% SR) for 140.3pts (+75.8% ROI)
  • 5 furlong races : 30/159 (18.9% SR) for 49.3pts (+31% ROI)
  • good to firm ground : 16/137 (11.7% SR) for 87.6pts (+63.9% ROI)
  • Class 4 races :14/76 (18.4% SR) for 20pts (+26.3% ROI)

The strike rates for all those angles are pretty consistent and all produce decent profits. Unfortunately if you attempt to combine more than a couple of the elements above, it makes your sample size too small too work with, but with a slight relaxation of the criteria, I have a workable micro as follows…

Showcasing’s 2yo maidens at 5-6 furlongs on ground ranging from Good to Soft through to Good to Firm at Classes 3 to 5 are 19/107 (17.8% SR) for 75pts (+70.1% ROI), with those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 31.9pts (+83.9% ROI).

And that’s your lot for Monday!

I’ve taken 5/1 BOG about Point of Woods from the Betfair Sportsbook and as of 1.00am, it was also available from Bet365, with many firms not yet quoting on the race.

Once the full market is open, you’ll be able to…

…click here for the betting on the 6.00 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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