Double Dutch, 10th August 2015
You’ll have to just trust/believe me that Saturday’s picks were as well thought out as normal and they weren’t just the result of me letting my dog point to them on a racecard.
That said, she’d probably have done a better job than the results I achieved! 4th & 6th in an admittedly tight finish to a 7-runner contest at Newmarket (beaten by 0.75L & 2.25L) was followed by even worse…
…at Lingfield where we got 4th (5.5L) and 5th (8L) on a 10 runner, 6f contest where a 25/1 shot made all to win cosily, spreading the field out over 30 lengths from front to back. I suppose that says it all!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Mutasayyid : 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Almohtaseb : 6th at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Eglantyne Dream : 4th at 8/1 (adv 4/1)
Harlequin Rock : 5th at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2285 = 28.23%
203 winning bets in 592 days = 34.29%
P/L : +112.09pts (+9.47% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I’ll be hoping for a better week than the last one, starting today with…
Punch Bag looks the one to beat here at 9/4 BOG, coming off the back of a five week rest since completing a third win in four outings via a double at Limerick in June/July under today’s jockey who has won on each on the three occasions he has been on board. They clearly get on well and this looks a great opportunity to extend that record.
With Gordon Elliott training three of the six runners here, it’s safe to assume that it’s a race he’d like to win and although his horses aren’t going as well as he’s like, there have been signs of improvement of late. I’m actually going to take the 7/1 BOG outsider of his runners here as my backup, as I feel The Scourge has most to offer.
He was beaten by Punch Bag (above) in mid-April by 7 lengths in the first race of that four race sequence I mentioned earlier, but he was carrying 5lbs more than the winner that day and is now rated some 13lbs lower, he has to stand a good chance of closing that gap.
Throw in a 7lb jockey claim and we’re effectively 25lbs better off for 7 lengths. I know it doesn’t alsways work like that, but The Scourge has run well and won since and I just think 7/1 BOG is too big to ignore (possible E/W punt?).
Six go to post for this one and I can see the winner coming from the first three in the market, so which to omit as there seems little to choose between them?
The one I’m leaving out is Breden, despite him winning three of his last five runs and dropping down to Class 3 after a 2/2 record at Class 2. I just think he’ll need the run after 647 days off the track, especially carrying top weight, conceding 15lbs to Bishops Leap!
Bishops Leap is rated 6lbs lower than Breden, but as a 3 yr old gets a very helpful 9lbs weight for age allowance, enabling him to carry just 8-13 today. Trainer Andrew Balding has a good record on this track and the horse has finished 311 in his three starts so far. All three runs have been over today’s trip and twice on good to firm ground, so conditions look ideal at 5/2 BOG.
The one likeliest to deny him the hat-trick would appear to be Smartie Artie, another runner with just three starts under his belt, albeit as a 4yr old so no weight allowance here. He was a winner over course and distance last time out, three weeks ago, when making all to score by 2.5 lengths despite easing down towards the line and conceding weight all round.
The runner-up has since reappeared and improved to within 1.5 lengths of a winner and at 3/1 BOG, Smartie Artie looks a solid backup.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Punch Bag / Bishops Leap @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Paddy)
Punch Bag / Smartie Artie @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4: Paddy)
The Scourge / Bishops Leap @ 23.50/1 (6/1 & 5/2 : Bet365)
The Scourge / Smartie Artie @ 25.25/1 (6/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor, Coral & SkyBet)