Stat of the Day, 11th August 2015
I had a feeling that the favourite was underpriced/overbet at Thirsk yesterday, meaning that we’d get a decent price about Point of Woods and although our advised 5/1 didn’t beat the 9/2 SP by far, it did show the market had seriously underestimated our runner.
And I can say that with confidence, as he defied being berthed in an “unwinnable stall position” to tack right across from the off to grab the rail and then just run for the line! It was a simple, but devastatingly effective tactic, that saw him make all to win by almost three lengths and from stall 2!
The runner-up had actually come from just inside in Stall 3, whilst the very short-priced favourite could only finish third from the plum 10 box, leading me to wonder about the validity of a “perceived draw bias”, one I’m not sure really exists. Perhaps we’ll add it to Matt’s piece on betting myths!
Anyway, the upshot is this. A winner at 5/1 to start the week and complete a hat-trick of wins. It’s our 5th winner in the last 7 picks, we’re 5 from 8 for the month and with almost three weeks left to run, August is now guaranteed to be profitable! Time now to clock up as many winners as we can, hopefully starting in Tuesday’s…
Where Kevin Ryan’s Company Asset is a 9/2 BOG shot with both Bet365 and BetVictor for this 2yo maiden contest.
We’ll start with the trainer’s record here at this track…
Snce the start of the 2008 campaign, here at Carlisle Kevin Ryan’s runners are 21 from 116 (18.1% SR) for 134.7pts (+116.1% ROI) profit, analysed as follows with today’s race in mind in descending number of qualifiers…
- those who last ran 1 to 45 days ago : 19/96 (19.8% SR) for 130.1pts (+135.5% ROI)
- those, 2nd to 7th place LTO : 20.76 (26.3% SR) for 172.6pts (+227.1% ROI)
- Class 5 runners :16/75 (21.3% SR) for 122.3pts (+163.1% ROI)
- beaten by 2 to 15 lengths LTO : 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 144.5pts (+218.9% ROI)
- 2 yr olds are 9/50 (18% SR) for 43.8pts (+87.6% ROI)
- maiden races : 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 23.5pts (+53.3% ROI)
Kevin Ryan’s Class 4 to 6 runners at Carlisle running within 90 days of their last outing which was a 2nd to 7th place finish, beaten by less than 15 lengths are 19 from 65 (29.2% SR) for 162.4pts (+249.9% ROI) profit.
Company Asset is Kevin’s only runner at this track today…
And since 2010, whenever Kevin had only had one runner at a track, that horse has won on 193 of 1131 occasions (17.1% SR) generating 729pts profit at an ROI of 64.5%. His 2yr olds fitting this bill are 57/330 (17.3% SR) for 633.5pts (+192% ROI) and in maiden races, his runners are 45/281 (16% SR) for 95.3pts (+33.9% ROI).
Kevin’s 2yo male maidens are 22/127 (17.3% SR) for 67.4pts (+53.1% ROI), whilst his Carlisle sole representatives are 5/20 (25% SR) for 90.7pts (+453.5% ROI).
In fact, Company Asset is Kevin’s only runner all day!
And on days when he’s only had the one winner, he has won more than his fair share of races, visiting the winners enclosure on 86 of 456 occasions (18.9% SR) for profits of 595.8pts at an ROI of 130.7% since 2009. These runners can, of course, be categorised in respect of today’s contest and that would look a little like this…
- Males are 70/352 (19.9% SR) for 539.2pts (+153.2% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 20/111 (18% SR) for 548.3pts (+494% ROI)
- maidens are 21/110 (19.1% SR) for 81.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
- here at Carlisle : 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 56pts (+800% ROI!)
His 2yo male maidens are 9/45 (20% SR) for 60pts (+133.3% ROI) since 2009 and in the last four seasons that becomes 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 76.8pts (+284.4% ROI).
Graham Lee takes the ride…
And not only did he win this race last year, he also has a good record riding for Kevin Ryan with 23 win s from 148 (15.5% SR) generating profits of 63.5pts at an ROI of 42.%. On the Ryan males, he is 21/120 (17.5% SR) for 85.5pts (+71.2% ROI), on 2yr olds he is 11/61 (18% SR) for 75.7pts (+124.2$% ROI) with a record reading 9/52 (17.3% SR) for 73pts (+140.5% ROI) in maidens.
Graham Lee has won 7 times from 35 rides (20% SR) for 84pts (+240% ROI) profit on Kevin Ryan’s 2yo male maidens and has a 6/16 (37.5% SR) record on thos priced at 5/1 and shorter.
Obviously, as a maiden, there’s no winning form to discuss, but Company Asset was only 3 lengths behind Squash last time out and she has gone on to finish 4th of 20 in a Class 2, £25k, 20-runner handicap, beaten by less than two lengths before going down by a similar margin in a Group 3 event last Saturday.
I’m not suggesting Company Asset is a Group horse, but if he can run to the same level as last time out, we should at the very least get a good run for our money placed at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 or BetVictor, currently (1.10am!) the two best prices on offer.
Once the full market is open, you’ll be able to…
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