Stat of the Day, 12th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th August 2015

Before I get on to Wednesday’s selection, can I just take the opportunity of thanking you all for the kind words and positive messages you’ve been sending us of late, but please remember us when things aren’t as good!

SotD is a long-term project and before the next good run will have to come a bad one, so bank the current profits, use them as stakes and be nice when I’m struggling!

I don’t when that’ll be, of course, because the current purple patch continued on Tuesday, as our 9/2 BOG selection Company Asset won by the best part of two lengths, despite an indifferent start. But win she did, and so did we for the sixth time in nine this month and I’m hoping to put us all in seventh heaven via Wednesday’s…

6.10 Kempton :

With an 11/4 BOG bet on the 2 yr old filly Q Ten Girl : prices current at 7.05pm from Bet365, BetVictor and SkyBet, whilst Betfair are just a quarter point shorter.

Q Ten Girl has already suggested that she’s more at home on the A/W than on turf and has made the frame in each of her two A/W runs to date. She was second and beaten by just a length and a quarter on her A/W debut four weeks in a similar nursery handicap to this one and since then she has finished third of nine in a seller at a higher grade than this.

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She wore a visor for the first time that day and that’s reapplied here, as are first time cheekpieces to get a bit more from her. She finished that latest run as though she needed further than the 6f on offer that day and shoud relish the step to 7f.

It might also have only been a seller that she contested last time out, but it was a grade higher than this contest ands if anything looked a better race. She was doing all her best work in the closing stages and only went down by less than a length staying on strongly. Her trainer Mark Usher seems to be coming back to form with 2 winners and a place from 6 runners in the last week and the drop in class might just prove vital here.

Now let’s look at some numbers, shall we?

Since 2008, Mark Usher’s record with handicappers dropping in class is decent enough with 30 winners from 273 (11% SR) for 169.6pts (+45.5% ROI) from blind backing and with todays contest in mind, those runners are categorised as follows (in decreasing sample size)…

  • those who last ran within 45 days : 30/224 (13.4% SR) for 218.6pts (+92.6% ROI)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 are 25/151 (16.6% SR) for 68.7pts (+45.5% ROI)
  • 2 & 3 yr olds are 12/116 (10.3% SR) for 125.4pts (+108.1% ROI)
  • female runners are 13/107 (12.2% SR) for 132.2pts (+123.6% ROI)
  • and those finishing 3rd to 5th LTO  :15/81 (18.5% SR) for 62pts (+76.6% ROI)

You can, of course, combine some/all of the above to make micros for yourself, but the sample size does become quite small. One I did put together for you was those running at 21 to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run, were they finished 3rd, 4th or 5th. Such runners are 15/55 (27.3% SR) for 88pts at an ROI of 160%.

Q Ten Girl is also interesting running just 5 days after her last run, but under salightly different race conditions, as though just slight tweaks to her gameplan were needed. I suppose with two narrow defeats recently, there’s some mileage in that and she does fit in well with some A/W Quick returners I look out for.

This one looks more complicated in print than in reality, so bear with me, because I’m looking for the following…

A/W hcps / 5 to 16 runners / March to November / aged 2 to 7 / running at a trip no more than a furlong different to last time / lost by a short head to 5 lengths LTO in the past 5 days. And breathe!

Such horses priced at 7/4 to 10/1 are 151/674 (22.4% SR) for 277.7pts (+41.2% ROI) since 2008 and I’d say to back them all! If you want fewer bets, here are just five of the possible angles you could take from this set of runners…

  1. Class 6 runners : 69/320 (21.6% SR) for 123.9pts (+38.7% ROI)
  2. Female runners : 48/198 (24.2% SR) for 134.1pts (+67.7% ROI)
  3. Those stepping a furlong : 34/161 (21.1% SR) for 69.7pts (+43.3% ROI)
  4. Kempton runners : 31/148 (21% SR) for 61.5pts (+41.6% ROI)
  5. 2 yr olds are 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.4% ROI)

As above with Mark Usher’s Class droppers, you can combine the angles to make niche systems, but once again the samples became small. A quick one I did was Class 6 females at the same trip or up a furlong here at Kempton and the fact that there are only 23 qualifiers backs up the dilution point.

Mind you 6 winners from 23 is 26.1% SR and the 19.4 pts profit is an ROI of 84.5%. Have a play with the data and see what you come up with! What it tells me is that Q Ten Girl has very chance from a stats angle and she’s running well enough to justify my selection at 11/4 BOG.

I got on with Bet365 just after 7pm and an hour and a quarter later, there are at least five firms offering the same deal, so why not…

…click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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