Double Dutch, 12th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 12th August 2015

Not the biggest return we’ve ever had, but two well-backed winners did at least combine to give us a 9.71/1 winning double to get us back on track after a pretty poor recent run.

The double was originally struck at 10.81/1, but a 15p Rule 4 deduction (probably 20p if you used Paddy P!), reduced the payout. Mind you it was still far better than the 4.73/1 paid out at SP, after Mister Rockandroll and Sleepy Blue Ocean were winners at 10/1 and 2/1 respectively.

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Mister Rockandroll : WON at 10/11 (adv 13/8 = 1.38/1 after R4)
Card High : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4 = 2.34/1 after R4)
Sleepy Blue Ocean : WON at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Hardy Black : u/p (6th) at 2/1 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
648 winning selections from 2293 = 28.26%
204 winning bets in 594 days = 34.34%

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Stakes: 1187.50pts
Returns: 1300.95pts
P/L : +113.45pts (+9.55% ROI)


And so to Wednesday…

4.30 Salisbury :

Faery Song was possibly a little unlucky in finishing third at Leicester last time out. That was three weeks ago on her handicap debut and a first crack at today’s 1m2f trip. Short of room as the pace increased, she had to check her stride and switch outside and on the run-in those split second things can cost several lengths.

She did, however, get going again, and she caught the eye with a decent finish to make up some ground to grab third, a length and a head behind a winner receiving 16lbs from her. Jockey George Baker is in fine form and has an 18/51 record over the last 2 years when riding for David Lanigan, for whom the 15/8 BOG Faery Song is his only chance of prize money today.

None of her rivals excite me, though, and I’m probably going to err on the side of caution with the relatively consistent Dark Avenger as backup, who looks to get off the mark at the eighth attempt. He has however, never finished out of the first four home and tends not to get beaten by too far too often. He has tried this trip just the once, when beaten by a length after being headed late on over this course and distance in May.

He’s now 2lb lighter than that solid run, hood and blinkers are also applied today for further help and the booking of Jamie Spencer is a positive move as jockey and trainer are 8/20 in the last two seasons together and they’ll be hoping that Dark Avenger finally breaks his duck at 3/1 BOG.


5.50 Bath :

With very little recent winning form on display from any of the eight runners here, it could well pay to side with the reliable Top Cop. For sure, he doesn’t win very often, but finishes of 3223 in the last five weeks, all under today’s jockey Matthew Cosham suggests this 6yr old gelding isn’t too far away from landing one and this looks abut the weakest race he’s contested for a while.

He has won here in the past and the going/trip shouldn’t be too much of a concern, as long as he avoids the traffic that derailed his bid last time out. Top Cop currently trades at around the 2/1 BOG mark.

The main challenge is likely to come from Burnt Cream, who does at least have some winning form over course and distance, has won two and placed in four other runs on firm ground and is a four-time winner at this 5f trip. A recent losing run has seen this mare’s mark (OR) drop down to 55, which was the last figure that she won off and now that she’s also dropping in class, Burnt Cream to be seen as dangerous at 4/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Faery Song / Top Cop @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Hills)
Faery Song / Burnt Cream @ 13.50/1 (19/10 & 4/1 : 10Bet)
Dark Avenger / Top Cop @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : Hills)
Dark Avenger / Burnt Cream @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Hills)

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