Stat of the Day, 13th August 2015
A moral, if not a financial victory for us at Kempton on Wednesday evening.
I had highlighted the success of Mark Usher’s handicappers dropping in class and also the success of 2yr olds / females/ those running within 45 days / those priced at 12/1 and shorter. All of which fitted our selection Q Ten Girl perfectly. She ran a poor race, it has to be said, finishing 8th of 9, beaten by around 7.5 lengths.
The winner? Indigo, a Mark Usher class dropping 2yr old filly running after a 20 day break and priced at 12/1. You couldn’t make it up! Of course there were other reasons why I ended up going with the wrong Usher runner, but the winner did at least justify the research.
I do, however, prefer profits to moral victories, so I want that point back from Thursday’s…
Via a 9/2 BOG bet with Bet365 about the 3yr old filly, Quite A Story, who will be ridden by the in-form Adam Kirby who has ridden 10 winners from 35 (28.6% SR) for 15.65pts profit (+44.7% ROI) in the last week.
And since 2009, he has ridden 124 winners from 895 (13.9% SR) efforts for Clive Cox for profits of 132.5pts at an ROI of 14.8%. Of those 895 runners, those priced 3/1 to 11/1 are 68/448 (15.2% SR) for 87.4pts (+19.5% ROI) and female horses are 50/371 (13.5% SR) for 87.1pts (+23.5% ROI).
If we combine the two, we end up with the following combo Kirby / Cox / females @ 3/1 to 11/1 winning 30 of 189 (15.9% SR) for 53.7pts.
Clive Cox’s female runners here at Salisbury are 9/18 (50% SR) for 18.05pts (+100.3% ROI) with a record in handicaps of 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 7.87pts (+60.5% ROI) and Quite A Story come here after running well in each of her three starts. She was a runner-up on debut, before landing a maiden at Windsor over 6f at the end of June, but wasn’t quite able to follow that up over the same course and distance a month later (17 days ago) on her handicap debut.
She now drops back in class in a bid to resume winning ways and the fact that she has finished 1st and 3rd in her last two outings makes her of my 1-2/3/4 horses which are horses that won two starts ago but were defeated into 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out. There are some basic criteria added to that but that’s the starting point.
What I want is horses who won their penultimate run and then finished 2,3 or 4 LTO, 16 to 60 days ago. They need to be 3 to 5 yrs old running at trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on the flat (turf).
That might sound like exacting conditions, but we’ve had 1218 qualifiers in the past four (including this one) seasons. 222 of 1218 (18.2% SR) were winners, generating 319.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 26.2%. Female runners, like Quite A Story are 87/443 (19.6% SR) for 159.4pts (+36% ROI).
At 9.30pm you could still back Quite A Story at 9/2 BOG with bet365, BetVictor or Hills, so feel free to take your pick, when you…
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