Stat of the Day, 14th August 2015
After Wednesday’s moral victory, Thursday’s runner, Quite A Story was first past the post having been sent off as the 3/1 favourite, well backed in from our 9/2 advised odds.
All good then?
Well, no. Not exactly. There was just the minor detail of her having run virtually the whole of the 6 furlong trip with no jockey! She was berthed in the far left stall and after having played up a bit before going in, then being the last to load, she veered sharply left when the gates opened and poor Adam Kirby was sent to the floor. Game Over.
Some bookies have refunded bets, but for me and my records, it’s a 1pt loss. She was loaded into the stalls, they opened and she set off. So, it’s certainly “a run” in my eyes. We can’t, of course, win them all, but I’d now like to win Friday’s…
Where once again, Adam Kirby will attempt to ride a winner for us in the shape of the 4/1 BOG Ocean Applause.
In the last seven days, Adam has ridden 8 winners from 34 despite falling off yesterday, whilst the trainer of Ocean Applause, John Ryan is 3 from just 8 in the past week.
Together since 2011, Adam and John have 27 wins from 138 (19.6% SR) runners and this has produced level stakes profits of 20.6pts at an ROI of 15%. In handicaps, they are 21/111 (18.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+24% ROI), whilst on the Flat (turf) they are 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 51.25pts (+142.4% ROI).
In flat handicaps, Adam Kirby has 7 winners from 24 rides (29.2% ROI) for 50.9pts (+212.1% ROI) on John Ryan’s horses.
The last of the 24 rides was a win for Ocean Applause here over course and distance just 7 days ago, which was a welcome return to form for a horse that had finished 687 in his previous outings, all after another good run (3rd) over this track and trip, making for recent 5-run sequence reading 36871.
That run of form makes him one of my “return to form” horses, ie horses unplaced for at least 3 consecutive runs who then win and are then turned out again within 4 to 30 days in a Flat handicap to take advantage of a return to form. There are, of course other criteria to be applied and all are relevant/fitting here.
It needs to be a Class 3 to 6 handicap at an OR the same or up to 4 lbs higher than last time, class is the same or up 1 and the trip must be no more than 1f (up or down) from that recent winning run.
Since 2009, I’ve had 708 such qualifiers, of which 987 (13.7% SR) have been winners, generating 72.9pts (+10.3% ROI) profit.
Of the 987, those priced at 5/2 to 16/1 running 7 to 25 days after that win LTO are 70/530 (13.2% SR) for 107.5pts +20.3% ROI).
This suggests a strong run from Ocean Applause, whose three wins on turf have all been on good to firm ground, whilst he’s also a three times winner at this 1m2f trip. He has 2 wins from 7 under Adam Kirby and the money generally tells the story of his chances, because…
…at odds of 9/4 to 5/1, Ocean Applause is 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) for 8.22pts profit at an ROI of 58.7%.
The 4/1 BOG price is currently (7.40pm) available with Coral, Betfair’s Sportsbook and Bet365, whilst for a fuller picture later, you can always…
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