Double Dutch, 14th August 2015
There was no “treble of doubles” to report on from yesterday, after what turned out to be my worst day of punting for some time and certainly the poorest of the month so far.
And whilst a winner and a runner-up doesn’t look too bad, it still meant a losing bet. Both our runners in race 1 were well supported and were sent off as 2/1 jt favs, and finished 1st and 3rsd, but the later contest at Lingfield didn’t go well at all.
Aljafer was the better of our two runners, but was still comprehensively beaten by five lengths over 7f by a winner who had plenty in hand, whilst Wee Jean was a major disppointment, back in 4th, some 17 lengths off the winner. She looked nothing like a group horse yesterday.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
La Superba : WON at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Spirit of Wezda : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Aljafer : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Wee Jean : u/p (4th) at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2301 = 28.29%
204 winning bets in 596 days = 34.23%
P/L : +116.70pts (+9.79% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Looking to get back on track with these…
The 7yr old grey mare, Glastonberry has been in fine form of late, beaten by a neck and then by a nose before landing back to back successes, all over 6f before getting beaten last time out over half a furlong shorter on firmer ground at Bath, taking her 5-run sequence to 22112. The return to 6f an slightly slower ground is surely more to her liking here and she can put her experience to good use by landing this at 100/30 BOG (boylesports).
The big danger looks to be the 5/2 BOG fav Effusive who makes only her sixth start today and just her second run of the season. Considered good enough to contest two Group 3 events last term, she returned to the fray at Chester last month after a break of 266 days. Chester isn’t the ideal place to make a reappearance in my opinnion, due to the quirky nature of the track and whilst she was fourth of five runners, she wasn’t disgraced by any means.
She was, in fact, only beaten by less than three lengths and the three horses ahead of her have all won since. The winner Miidlander has won a £28k Class 2 race, whilst the third placed horse Kassbaan won at Windsor last Sunday with the runner-up Jebediah Shine landing a handicap at Beverley yesterday. Effusive should come on for the run and if the form holds out from Chester and she runs to the promise shown last season, we could have an interesting race on our hands.
As you’re probably aware, I do like to back Ralph Beckett’s horses, especially when they’re his only runner at a track and tonight is the turn of Singular Quest. This horse is still a maiden after 5 attempts, but has knocked on the door on several occasions to the extent that his handciap rating is 76 acquired by consistent performances at Class 4 level, including one run where he was only beaten by a neck at Sandown behind Yorkidding who was third in a Class 2 contest last week.
Ralph is very good at placing his maidens and a lot of thought will have gone into sending Singular Quest here for a drop in both trip and class and I’m inclined to believe that this could well be his day returning to maiden company after four runs in handicaps, so if you like him 9/4 BOG is the best on offer.
Based on hcp form and ratings, he should hold Kellys Finest who is even more exposed and less successful, making me turn towards Our Thomas as my Plan B at what might prove to be a generous 5/1 BOG. His yard are in good nick (4/17 last week) as is jockey David Allan (7/16 in the last week), whilst David is 5/16 here at Catterick this season, which is a positive.
Today is just Our Thomas‘ second outing and was a modest, but not disastrous third of seven on debut and was 6 lengths behind Decorated Knight who is two from two since that day, having won back to back races at Class 5 and then Class 3 (hcp) level of a mark of 85. If (and it’s an if!) he improves for having had the run also also steps up like Decorated Knight has done, then Our Thomas has every chance in an ordinary looking contest.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Effusive / Singular Quest @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Effusive / Our Thomas @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : Bet365)
Glastonberry / Singular Quest @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Glastonberry / Our Thomas @ 21.50/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : Bet365 & Betfair SB)