Stat of the Day, 15th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2015

Well, for the second day in a row, we got no run from an Adam Kirby mount in pursuit of more August profits, which was a disappointment to us all.

The good news, however, was that with the weather deteriorating and the softening of the ground, John Ryan took the decision to withdraw Ocean Applause from the race not too long bwefore the scheduled off time. I’m not quite sure they waited so long, but I think it was the right decision.

A good friend of mine treated the news with delight, as he was convinced Golden Emerald would make it a tough race for our selection and in the end, he had the winner and we lost nothing.

And now, despite the excellent recent run, it feels almost as though we’ve not had a winner for ages! So let’s try to rectify that position via the week’s last pick in Saturday’s…

4.50 Newbury :

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Which is a ten-runner, Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half, where I’ve gone with Pin Up, about whom I’ve taken 7/2 with Ladbrokes. This is non-BOG until 9.00am, but I think the SP will be much shorter. If you want the added insurance of BOG, then BetVictor’s 100/30 BOG is the best on offer, with the rest of the bookies quoting 3/1 BOG.

Pin Up is trained by Richard Fahey, who after some lean times here in Berkshire has been quite successful at this track over the last three seasons, saddling up 9 winners from 57 (15.8% SR) for 63.2pts (+110.9% ROI) profit, with those runners priced at 8/1 and shorter winning 7 of 24 (29.2% SR) for 26pts (+108.4% ROI).

As a 3yr old running in a 3yo+ 1m4f handicap, Pin Up gets a very useful/healthy 11lbs weight allowance, which actually makes this top rated runner fourth lightest at the weights after all claims and allowances are considered. This “weight for age” scheme is set in stone and some trainers are better than others at “exploiting” it.

Richard Fahey is one of the shrewder ones, it has to be said and his record since 2008 at trips of 1m3f to 1m6f, where his horses receive 10 to 13lbs, is excellent. Such Fahey runners are 18/71 in these 3yo+ handicaps, with that 25.4% strike rate generating a very healthy profit of 70.6pts at at an ROI of 99.4%.

In Flat (turf) contests, the record is 16/57 (28.1% SR) for 59.95pts (+105.2% SR), whilst his female runners are 10/38 (26.3% SR) for 54.4pts (+143.2% SR).

Taking advantage of the “weight for age” allowance, Richard Fahey’s 3 yr old fillies running at trips of 1m3f to 1m6f in 3yo+ Flat (turf) handicaps are 9/25 (36% SR) with a £20 level stake per runner yielding £994 profit at an ROI of 198.8%.

Alyson Deniel is in the saddle today and I’m sure some of you are asking “Who?”

Well, she’s no mug, I can tell you that much. She doesn’t ride as often as some of the more well known lady amateurs, but she wins her fair share of these lady amateur races. She has won 9 of 81 such contests (11.1% SR) to date and although backing her blindly has actually created a 0.1pt loss overall at Betfair SP, this suggests that backing her at early BOG prices would be profitable and that a slight tweak would make her interesting to follow.

And it turns out that she’s a bit of a specialist in and around today’s 1m4f trip with a record of 5 wins from 23 (21.7% SR) for 25.7pts (+111.8% ROI) profit in races over 12/12.5 furlongs. It’s a perfectly logical tweak to her overall record, but one I’m not sure why it exists, but I’m guessing she struggles with the physical demands of riding fast races and maybe hasn’t the stamina for longer contests, but I’m merely guessing here!

Pin Up finished 222 in her first three runs in maidens over 8/8.5 furlongs over the winter, before failing to see out 10f at Chelmsford in January. She was then withdrawn from action and the Fahey team have cleared worked on her stamina, as she was only beaten into third place by 0.75 lengths on her return to racing at Thirsk on good ground a month ago.

Not only was that her handicap debut, but also her first crack at today’s 1m4f trip. She then ran over the same Thirsk track, trip and ground conditions and once again was beaten by just 0.75 lengths, but as a runner-up this time. It all then came together for her next/last time out with a win over 1m4f at Ripon, where she seemed far more at home on softer ground, which should bear well for today. Her record at this trip now reads 321 and I’d expect another good show from her today.

As I said at the top, I’ve taken 7/2 non-BOG from Ladbrokes, but for a fuller market overview…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today’s racecard.

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