Double Dutch, 17th August 2015
A non-runner, a placer and two poor efforts was what we got on Saturday on a day that won’t linger too long in the memory thankfully.
Going changes, bad weather and non-runners aplenty made a normally difficult day much tougher, but every race still had a winner : we just didn’t find them!
In the end it’s a toss-up between Withernsea’s staying on third place at Newbury and Bonds Gift’s withdrawal from the Doncaster race as our highlight, that’s how bad it was!
Saturday’s results were as follows:
Imaginary World : u/p (8th) at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Bonds Gift : non-runner (adv 7/2)
Withernsea : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Mujassam : u/p (7th) at 7/2 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
651 winning selections from 2309 = 28.19%
204 winning bets in 598 days = 34.11%
P/L : +112.70pts (+9.43% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Hoping / needing much better this week, starting with…
Both jockey Adam Kirby and trainer Roger Varian have been in really good form of late and Roger’s horses tend to go well here at Windsor, so this points to a good effort from the 9/4 BOG Bella Lulu who is expected to improve for a step up into handicap company, not that she’s run poorly in the past, though!
She only ran once as a 2yo, in an average sort of run, before going back in the shed for 260 days. On her reappearance, she was only beaten by a length and a half and will have needed the run, as shown when winning on her third and final outing at Doncaster a little over 6 weeks ago. She won pretty comfortably by two lengths, with the runner-up winning by 6 lengths last Wednesday.
Postbag is the one I expect to deliver (sorry!) the biggest challenge to the selection. Another lightly raced three year old, who has only run once since winning her maiden at Leicester in April, this 3/1 BOG shot took the move to handicaps in her stride really well at Goodwood almost three months ago.
She encountered “traffic issues” and lost vital ground when having to switch out, yet she ran on well and was beaten into third place by less than a length. I’m not too concerned about her having had a break and she’s sure to come on for the handicap experience.
This race looks pretty poor on paper with the majority of the runners coming here lacking any decent recent form, but the one that stands out for me is Algaith, who was a good third at Newmarket in a Class 2 handicap just a month ago, beaten by just a length and three quarters. It’s possible that after back to back wins on the A/W last winter too much has been asked of this son of Dubawi and today represents his easiest assignment for some while.
After winning that pair of Class 5 A/W runs, he was stepped up in trip for a Listed contest on good to firm ground. Although not entirely disgraced, he was last of 7, almost 15 lengths behind Golden Horn. Two decent runs at Class 2 this season are now followed another drop in class and off bottom weight Algaith looks dangerous at 2/1 BOG.
There are pros and cons about each of his five rivals here, all having something to prove, but I’m going to side with Maftool, despite him appearing to have lost his way after a runner-up finish and then a win in two Group 3 contests last September. This represents not only as major drop in class, but the return to the A/W and a drop in trip should give him every chance here today.
He’s clearly not in Class 1 form, but if running to his potential, Maftool should be able to concede weight to his rivals here and still put on a decent performance. Perhaps his handlers see this as the easiest back in, so to speak and if you like his chances, he can be backed at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Bella Lulu / Algaith @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Bella Lulu / Maftool @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : generally)
Postbag / Algaith @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Betfair SB)
Postbag / Maftool @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Betway)