Double Dutch, 19th August 2015
The milestone of Double Dutch’s 600th day didn’t, unfortunately, bring about a change in results, as my current cold spell continued.
All betting/tipping runs on cyclical form and I’m of the optimistic frame of mind that each losing bet is taking me one step closer to my next run of good form.
That said, we’re still well in profit after 600 days, but maybe not as far ahead as I’d like. The highlight of yesterday was Case Key’s decent runner-up finish, defying a drift out to 6/1, but not quite able to catch a winner who made all.
Trimoulet ran well later, but appeared not to see the trip out, relinquishing the lead in the latter stages.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Case Key : 2nd at 6/1 (adv 9/2)
Fast Enough : u/p (5th) at 2/1 (adv 3/1)
Trimoulet : u/p (3rd) at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Injun Sands : u/p (4th) at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
652 winning selections from 2317 = 28.14%
204 winning bets in 600 days = 34.00%
P/L : +108.70pts (+9.06% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday’s selected races are…
The three previous runnings of this race have beEn won by either Dermot Weld or Aiden O’Brien and I can’t see this year’s contest being any different. Mr O’Brien has the 7/4 BOG favourite, Johannes Vermeer, a 300,000 Euro son of Galileo, who will hopefully prove to be better second out like many of his siblings have been.
That said, he wasn’t entirely disgraced on debut, despite getting turned over at 8/11 at Tipperary almost six weeks ago. Not only do Galileo foals run better second time out, but the Ballydoyle outfit have a good record generally on second runs and the yard is in really good nick (12/27 in the last 2 weeks) and whilst their main focus will be elsewhere today, Johannes Vermeer could very well improve upon the yard’s near-27% strike rate at this track.
Dermot Weld’s Kitten Loves Roses not only sets the standard on form, but is also expected to provide the stiffest challenge to the Ballydoyle runner. He was fifth on debut at the Curragh at the end of June, with the front three home all winning since and wasn’t beaten by far second/last time out. He was overhauled with half a furlong to run, finishing third and only beaten by a neck and a head.
Mr Weld also has a good record on this track with a strike rate better than 1-in-4 and the team will be hoping that Kitten Loves Roses can land this one at 3/1 BOG (Coral).
I’m normally a little wary of hurdle debutants trading at 2/1 or shorter, but in this case, I can see why Great Fighter is expected to go well today. The yard and jockey are in good form, the yard does very well here at this track and also has an excellent record with both debutants and newcomers to the team.
For his own part, Great Fighter was more than useful on the Flat, winning at trips of up to 1m6f for Saeed bin Suroor. After just five starts, he has few miles on the clock and is an interesting early switcher to NH racing. Ground speed should be decent from his Flat efforts and you know that the Ferguson team will have schooled him well, making him of note here at 15/8 BOG.
Dancing Meadows is the standard to beat here and looked to be coming back into some decent form, with a good run at Perth last time out. Beaten by John Ferguson’s Jalingo that day 7 weeks ago was a creditable effort for a horse seeking a first win over hurdles, although she did land two bumpers including one at this track and was considered good enough to run in a Listed race at Cheltenham last November.
The run at Perth last time out was her first run back in the UK after some runs on testing ground in Ireland, she relished the step up from 2m to 2m4f and stayed on well on the better ground in similar conditions to what she’ll face today. If I’m honest, I probably wouldn’t back her at 2/1 BOG to win this, I’d want a bit more, but as half of a double, that’s fine and Dancing Meadows is the one I’d want to be with if the Ferguson runner doesn’t perform as expected.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Johannes Vermeer / Great Fighter @ 6.19/1 (6/4 & 15/8 : generally)
Johannes Vermeer / Dancing Meadows @ 6.50/1 (6/4 & 2/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Kitten Loves Roses / Great Fighter @ 10.50/1 (3/1 & 15/8 : Coral)
Kitten Loves Roses / Dancing Meadows @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)