Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015
After a rare day off due to a non-runner on Tuesday, it was back to business with a bang at Ffos Las in the wet and the gloom on Wednesday afternoon, as Declan Bates did a magnificent job of getting Sir Billy Wright home with something to spare in the end.
At halfway of the 5f contest, it didn’t look like it was going to be our day, but the pair seemed to glide across the sodden turf, making up loads of ground to pull clear to win by half a length, but relatively comfortably in the end.
Our 100/30 bet was reduced to 3/1 via the dreaded Rule 4 again, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP by some distance on the way to making it 2 from 2 for the week and we’re now hat-trick seeking in the…
And a family affair in this 2m 6.5f, Class 4 handicap chase which is reported to be on good to firm ground, but I’d not be surprised to see the firm bit dropped tomorrow! That’s the setting for the race in place, now onto the finer details!
The family in question are the Skeltons and their horse Vivacissimo is priced at 6/1 non-BOG (until 9.00am) with Ladbrokes and a generally available 11/2 BOG to take his own personal Stratford tally to 2 from 2.
In nine days time, it will be two years to the day that trainer Dan Skelton had his first NH handicap runner. Brother Harry was in the saddle aboard Gavroche Gauvain in a Class 5, 2m3f, handicap hurdle here at Stratford, but there was no fairytale beginning. The team was the last home of seven finishers, but thankfully they’ve never looked back since.
To date, Dan’s NH handicappers are now 74/348 (21.3% SR) for 11.3pts profit at a rather modest 3.25% ROI, but blind profitability is always a great starting point for refinement, as we don’t really want to back every runner anyway!
Simply avoiding odds on jollies and those beyond 12/1 gives us a far more palatable 69 winners from 300 (23% SR) and profits of 50.9pts at an ROI of 17%, which is more to my liking!
Of those 300, Harry Skelton is 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) and Dan’s handicappers are 6/20 (30% SR) here at Stratford for 5.6pts (+28% ROI).
A quick and easy micro for you from the above would be to back the Skelton brothers when partnered up in Class 4/5 handicap chases at evens to 12/1. In almost two years, that gives 18 winners from 58 (31% SR) and 20.8pts (+35.9% ROI) profit. That particular angle is 2/4 here at Stratford for 2.57pts (+64.2% ROI).
More generally, the boys are 82/366 (22.4% SR) for 69.1pts (+18.9% ROI) together with horses priced in that evens to 12/1 range. I mentioned earlier that they were 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) in handicaps at those odds, but they’re also 9/25 (36% SR) for 19.6pts (+78.4% ROI) together here at Stratford.
As a team together in hcp chases on this track at the same odds range, they are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 5.86pts (+65.1% ROI) profit with those horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1 winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 8.86pts at an ROI of 147.6%.
Vivacissimo is 1 from 1 here on this course, albeit over hurdles just two starts ago, but has won over fences at a trip of 2m 4.5f and the way he has stayed in the past suggests he’ll get today’s trip well enough. He’s also 1 from 1 under Harry Skelton and with Harry back amongst the winners with a 16/1 triumph at Worcester on Wednesday evening, confidence should be high.
I decided to take the 11/2 BOG about Vivacissimo from Coral, as I felt it was worth sacrifcing 8.3% of the Ladbrokes price to get the insurance against a drift, but please feel free to make your own decision on this one, after you…
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