Double Dutch, 20th August 2015
A couple of days ago I was frustrated at being denied a winner virtually on the line, well I live about 230 miles away from Matt and he probably heard my anguished shouting as my selections found a new way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
This time, we’d safely negotiated a potentially tricky Irish maiden and had a 6/4 win on the bank, courtesy of Johannes Vermeer, who predictably improved second time out. This gave us 2 shots worth 1.25pts each on a pair at Worcester.
And that’s where it went wrong for us. Dancing Meadows was a non-runner, leaving us with Great Fighter who proceeded to run like a born winner, opening up a gap of six lengths or more approaching the final hurdle unchallenged and unhurried. I think you can guess what happened.
Yes, horse and rider hit the deck and the race / double was gone. We got the consolation of a 1.25pts return on the winner/non-runner double, but even that winning bet represented a loss of 0.75pts on the day.
I’m on holiday from Friday, so you’ll be in the very capable hands of Mr Bisogno himself and if anyone can turn this ship around, he can. But before he attempts to do that, I’ll aim to steady things one more time today…
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Johannes Vermeer : WON at 6/4 (adv 6/4)
Kitten Loves Roses : u/p (7th) at 9/2 (adv 3/1)
Great Fighter : fell at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Dancing Meadows : non-runner (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
653 winning selections from 2320 = 28.15%
205 winning bets in 601 days = 34.11%
P/L : +107.95pts (+8.98% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
My last picks before my hols are…
Where it should pay to side with a couple in-form LTO winners in the shape of Zaria and firstly Lamyaa.
Lamyaa is the least exposed of the two, running just once as a two year old and now finishing 631 this season. She relished the first step up to this trip at Nottingham last out when she had the race won from a fairly long way out and an opening mark of 75 doesn’t look too punitive for a handicap debut, despite her having to bear top weight.
She was eased right down that day and could easily have won by much more than the official 1.5 lengths at the line and with the bad weather looming in the area again, a bit of rain would probably increase her chances, as she won on good to soft last time out. She technically runs off 69 thanks to her age allowance and Lamyaa is currently a 2/1 BOG shot…
…whilst Betfair Sports are currently offering as high as 7/2 BOG about Zaria and that’s surprising as I had them closer to each other than that. This four year old has a few more miles on her clock, having raced 14 times already and whilst a return of just two wins isn’t brilliant, let’s put that into context.
She took 12 races to get off the mark, but has won her last two outings, both here at Chepstow where she’s now 2/2, firstly over 7f and them most recently over this track and trip. She’s partnered by the talented 5lb claimer Tom Marquand again (2/2 together) and recent track form might be enough to carry Zaria home, especially receiving 16lbs from the favourite after all claims/allowances have been considered.
And a pair of horses narrowly beaten as runners-up nine days ago, both aiming to get another run in before being raised 3lbs for their latest efforts. It’s always tough for handicappers getting raised after a defeat, so you often see them runnnig again quickly before reasssessment kicks in.
Tyfos may well be 10yrs old now, but I’d say he’s still got at least a couple more wins in him, if allowed to run at the right weight and he almost took advantage of a dropping mark at Nottingham last week. He was headed by Sleepy Blue Ocean inside the final furlong but rallied gamely and came withhin a short head of grabbing the lead back on the line.
He gets to run off the same mark of 70 here today, but the booking of the useful Jack Garrity might make all the difference and I mean no disrespect to Tom Eaves, who couldn’t quite get him home last time. The difference here being that Jack can claim 3lbs and he’s in terrific form, having won 4 of 17 in the last week alone. A defeat by a short head means that every little helps and the jockey change could just get Tyfos over the line today at 7/2 BOG…
…but he’ll have to see off the 3/1 BOG favourite Salvatore Fury to do so. Beaten off today’s mark of 69 at Carlisle by ahead in a race he really should have won, he’ll take all the beating here today. He lost ground when he had to switch entering the final furlong that day and just as he was striking for home, got hampered in the closing stages, pretty much costing him the race.
The drop back to 5f isn’t really an issue for me here, as he has won over this trip in the past and has a course and distance win here under his belt (he has over won over 6f here too!). The field size looks to be ideal for him and he has run well in the past when turned out fairly quickly and providing he’s not too outpaced in the early stages, Salvatore Fury looks to have a really good chance today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Lamyaa / Salvatore Fury @ 11/1 (2/1 & 3/1 : Paddy P)
Lamyaa / Tyfos @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Zaria / Salvatore Fury @ 16.33/1 (10/3 & 3/1 : Paddy P)
Zaria / Tyfos @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : Betvictor & Ladbrokes)