Stat of the Day, 21st August 2015
No hat-trick of wins to report, I’m afraid, as Vivacissimo was a bit of a disappointment at Stratford, if truth be told. He ran and competed well enough until halfway, when an error at the ninth of 18 fences seemed to knock the stuffing out of him.
Fair play to jockey Harry Skelton for trying to get him going again and he persevered until the 4th from home, after which he was immediately pulled up. Whether something was amiss or Harry decided enough was enough is unclear, but for us it’s a 1pt loss from a 5/1 bet (adv 11/2).
They do say that if at first you don’t succeed you should
give up try again, so I’m tackling another chase contest on Friday via the…
Now, my sister is some form of PR hotshot and one of her clients is sponsoring this race, but my selection is purely coincidental (I only knew when I saw the title of the race, but if you do need any events staff etc, I’m assured that Mint Staffing Solutions are your people! 😀 ).
It’s a Class 4 handicap chase on good ground, where 12 runners will tackle two and a half miles in beautiful North Wales scenery and my chosen horse for this one is Waddington Hero, who currently trades at 7/2 BOG and I’ve already placed my bet with Bet365.
This 8yr old has been revitalised by a move to handicap chases and in five efforts has finished 31221 and never beaten by far. He was a winner last out, some nine weeks ago at Ffos Las where he beat the improving Zama Zama by a good six lengths, having led from 2 fences out.
Zama Zama has two wins and a runner-up finish in three starts since and last ran off a mark of 104, whilst Waddington Hero goes off just 102 here. The break won’t have done him any harm as he has three good runs (311) after slightly shorter breaks under his belt and shouldn’t be too rusty and that recent win puts him in the company of the following…
Since 2008, male chasers aged 6 to 9 who won handicap chases last time out by 2 to 10 lengths, 11 to 150 days ago are 396/2076 (19.1% SR) for 240.8pts (+11.6% ROI) profit.
That’s good money from blind backing, but not everyone wants 270 bets a year from one system and a data set of over 2,000 runners can be broken down in a multitude of ways, but with today’s contest in mind, I’m going to give you six possible angles of attack…
- those running after 11 to 75 days since the win are 387/1986 (19.5% SR) for 275.5pts (+13.9% ROI)
- those priced at 9/4 to 16/1 are 291/1707 (17.1% SR) for 342.6pts (+20.1% ROI)
- those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 178/856 (20.8% SR) for 157.7pts (+18.5% ROI)
- 8 yr olds are 110/601 (18.3% SR) for 69.6pts (+11.6% ROI)
- Class 4 runners are 140/574 (24.4% SR) for 98.7pts (+17.2% ROI)
- those running here at Bangor are 12/37 (32.4% SR) for 33.1pts (+89.5% ROI)
So, you’ve got angles ranging from around 260 bets to 5 bets per year and if wanted to take an aspect of all of them and have around 25 selections a year, which is a nice little niche micro, then why not apply the following criteria…
8 & 9 yr olds at Classes 3 & 4 at odds of 9/4 to 16/1 who won LTO by 5 to 10 lengths, 11 to 75 days ago. This gives 44 winners from 183 (24% SR) since the start of 2008 and has been profitable every year, totalling 123.2pts at an ROI of 67.3% to date.
Incidentally, such runners are 4/8 for 13.45pts (+168.1% ROI) here at Bangor.
You can follow my lead and take 7/2 BOG with Bet365, or you can choose one of at least six other firms offering the same BOG price. To see which firms they are, simply…
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