Stat of the Day, 25th August 2015
Our 100/30 BOG bet on Classical Rose was eventually reduced down to 17/6 courtesy of our feared foe R4, but that still dwarved our runner’s SP of 7/4 as we had another Magical Monday (4 Monday’s on the bounce?) with another winner.
Freddie Tylicki timed the charge perfectly and drove her home as needed adn she found enough under pressure to be pulling away again at the finish. Another great result for us, sweetened by getting 162% of SP, it’s always good to beat the book!
And I’m hoping that the same will happen in Tuesday’s…
Where Juncart could very well be overpriced at the 10/1 BOG being offered by Betfair’s Sportbook and Coral.
And what I’m going to do (you might want to play it differently, of course), is to back Juncart at one-third of a point E/W and one third of a point to win.
This basically gives me a small profit from a place and a decent return from a win. I just feel a standard E/W bet takes away too much win profit!
In the week and a half, William Haggas’ runners have been in top form, winning 13 of 43 races (30.2% SR) and a £20 bet on each of them would have realised a profit of £600 (+69.8% ROI) for you.
Of those 43 runners, handicappers are 10/24 (41.7% SR) for 25.5pts (+106.2% ROI), those running on good to soft ground or worse are 9/19 (47.4% SR) for 29.1pts (+153.2% ROI), whilst Pat Cosgrave has ridden 4 winners from 11 (36.4% SR) for 10.5pts (+95% ROI)
Pat Cosgrave / William Haggas / handicaps / good to soft or worse = 4/8 (50% SR) for 13.5pts (+168.2% ROI) in the last 11 days.
More long term, William Haggas has an excellent record in Flat handicaps, landing 227 winners from 1094 (20.8% SR) runners for level stakes profits of 166.8pts at an ROI of 15.3% with 55 winners coming from the 285 runners (19.5% SR) for 93.1pts (+33% ROI) on good to soft ground or worse.
Since 2012, he has been slightly more successful, but the market has been more alive to the danger, reducing the ROI a little. In the last four seasons, the Haggas ‘cappers are 126/577 (21.8% SR) for 73pts (+12.7% ROI) with his runners here at Newbury winning 8 of 24 (33.3% SR) for 4.7pts (+19.6% ROI) when priced at 6/1 or shorter (where IU feel we’ll end up today)
Of the 577 runners since the start of the 2012 campaign, the G to S / S ground runners have won 30 of 142 (21.1% SR) for 65.2pts (45.9% ROI) and with today’s race in mind…
Good to soft & soft / Class 4 / 7 to 10 furlongs = 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 38.5pts (+240.4% ROI)
Juncart is 2/8 so far including a Class 2 handicap success on his only soft ground outing to date. He’s 2 from 5 on a straight track and 2 from 3 when running within four weeks of his last run, provided he’s had more than a week’s rest.
And the above is why I’ve taken my 10/1 BOG from Coral just now (7.05pm), but for a full overview of the market…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS