Double Dutch, 25th August 2015
Times like these are a real test of character for any punter. Yesterday was my second day in the DD chair, and my second straight 2-1 finish. This time it was 2-3/1-3, a sequence which included nominating a 7/1 shot backed into 2/1 favouritism (and, actually, getting beaten into 3rd).
These are ‘great bets’ win, lose or draw, but naturally we only get paid on them when they win. So we’ll have another cut today.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Time Medicean: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Brean Splash Susie: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Premier Currency: WON at 9/4 (adv 7/4)
Cote d’Azur : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 7/1)
Results to date:
656 winning selections from 2331 = 28.14%
206 winning bets in 604 days = 34.11%
P/L : +104.20pts (+8.63% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Lots of deep ground around so I’m using that as the focus of today’s selections…
The in form horse is also the one known to be best suited by very soft ground. Pacolita has won and been second twice in her last three starts, and was second on soft ground. Her sire, Paco Boy, has been getting soft ground winners and her dam is by soft ground influence, In The Wings. She looks an obvious favourite and should be in the shake up.
Skidby Mill is a more hopeful addition, Laura Mongan’s five year old filly staying on well on her only heavy ground start. That was over five furlongs, this is a mile, and she was beaten less than a length in third that day. Her best form is over this trip and her jockey, Megan Nicholls, will probably ride a patient race, which could be perfectly suited to the track.
Our second leg is in Ireland, and it’s a cracking race in prospect, as Gigginstown top notchers Savello and Arnaud duke it out with five others in a rated chase. The obvious place to start is with ratings, which put Savello eleven pounds clear of Arnaud and, racing off the same weight today, he should finish in front if both stand up.
Pass The Hat is slightly better in than Arnaud at the weights, but that one is expected to be less suited by the ground. The main danger could be a third Giggy runner, Enjoy Responsibly. He has lots to find at the weights, but is on a more upward curve and, as a six year old, will likely be rated higher at the end of this season than he is now.
Whilst I do sometimes worry about Gigginstown team tactics, this race has a ‘top of the market’ look to it.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Pacolita/ Savello @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Pacolita / Arnaud @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Bet365)
Skidby Mill/ Savello @ 22.38/1 (15/2 & 7/4 : BetVictor)
Skidby Mill/ Arnaud @ 35/1 (8/1 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)