Double Dutch, 26th August 2015
Still no winning double, but small respite in the non-runner/winner coupling last night. A loss on the day, which is no fun, but at least it was ‘only’ 0.75 points. We go again, at a rain-softened Bath this evening…
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
Skidby Mill: 4th at 9/4 (adv 8/1, R4 applies)
Savello: WON at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Arnaud : Slipped Up at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
657 winning selections from 2334 = 28.15%
207 winning bets in 605 days = 34.21%
P/L : +103.45pts (+8.55% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A real rarity for Bath to be soft, and most runners will have been entered in the expectation of much quicker terrain. That means non-runners are a cert, but also the softies should be worth following…
A small field for this mile and three quarters handicap, and it is one of the handicap first timers that catches the eye. Fast Pick is by a sprinter (albeit one who is getting plenty of middle distance winners), but is stoutly bred on the dam side, and might appreciate this relative marathon. She’s stepping up in trip, having run over half this distance in her first two starts before a plugging on effort over a mile and a half last time. It’s possible she’s just slow, but she’ll never have a better chance than tonight to step forward into the winners’ circle.
The established form is brought to the party by Dean Ivory’s Goldslinger. Although mudslinger might be more apt tonight, this chap has won two of his last three, including here (on firm ground) and at Chepstow (on soft). They were both at a mile and a half so there are less stamina reservations than in some quarters, and though this is a class above his six length deep ground victory, he may attempt to make all again under one of my favourite jockeys, Royston Ffrench.
We’ll stay atop Lansdown Hill for leg two, the finale on Bath’s seven race card, where Highlife Dancer is a most obvious play. A three-time winner on soft turf, including over this trip, and a FIFTEEN-time career winner, he took this race last year off the same mark and for the same jockey. It doesn’t take a genius to realise he has a very solid chance.
I’ll back him up with a less solid, but higher priced, option in Greek Islands. Staying on in his last two races – a win over ten furlongs and a second place at a mile – he looks sure to appreciate the extra two furlongs tonight, and on breeding has a good chance of getting it. Incredibly, he was just touched off over five furlongs on his last soft ground run, and has shown significantly more stamina since then, with his last three UK turf figures being 212. He’s an interesting springer at a fair price.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Fast Pick / Highlife Dancer @ 5.85/1 (15/8 & 11/8 : PP, Boyle, Coral)
Fast Pick / Greek Islands @ 11.47/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : Boyle, Coral)
Goldslinger / Highlife Dancer @ 6.14/1 (2/1 & 11/8 : BetVictor, Coral)
Goldslinger / Greek Islands @ 11.99/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Coral, Bet365, BetVictor)