Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Cloud Seven was a little disappointing at Kempton last night, as he looked pretty laboured in the closing stages, despite being kept in a decent position.

When he moved to the right with just over a furlong to run, I thought that was the point that he’d set off to win the race, but he was very one paced on the run in and eventually got beaten into 4th place, almost 8 lengths off the winner.

Despite a couple of reversals last week away from the Flat & A/W, I turn again to some National Hunt action (there’s more of this than anything else today, strangely) and the race in question is the…

3.10 Stratford :

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But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established. If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race.

Thursday’s runner is Good of Luck, who is currently available at 3/1 BOG pretty much everywhere, is trainer Warren Greatrex’s only runner here at Stratford today and jockey Gavin Sheehan’s only booked ride of the day.

Trainer Warren is 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 16.5pts (+33% ROI) here at this track with an impressive 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) from hid hurdlers here that has generated 12.12pts profit (+43.3% ROI) to date. Jockey Gavin has ridden 4 of those hurdle winners from 16 attempts (25% SR) for 4.63pts (+28.9% ROI).

Good of Luck is 4 from 17 over hurdles which isn’t a bad return, but more recently since returning from a 3 month break last year, he returned to action last July and has 3 wins and two places from 6 runs (133141) and he’s 141 this year after an 8 month break from mid-September last year to mid-May 2015, so he’s clearly not one who needs to be kept busy!

He’s 1/1 at this track, acquired when Gavin Sheehan piloted him to a course and distance success last time out almost seven weeks ago. That took his record under Mr Sheehan to 4 from 9 and his record at 2m to 2m1f to 4/10. He has won on good ground in the past (inc. LTO) and also on soft ground, so conditions look ideal today.

It’s also worth noting that since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers who won last time out anywhere and are now running over a course and distance at which they have previously won, were winners again on 270 of 1398 (19.3% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 184.6pts at an ROI of 13.25%.

Of those 1398 runners…

  • Class 3 competitors are 67/305 (22% SR) for 181.2pts (+59.6% ROI), of which…
  • those whose last run was 11 to 60 days ago are 52/226 (23% SR) for 181.6pts (+80.4% ROI), of which…
  • those running at the same course and distance as LTO are 41/171 (24% SR) for 145.4pts  (+85% ROI)

I took 3/1 BOG about Good of Luck from Bet365, but to get your preferred bookie’s price…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Stratford

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Here is today’s racecard.

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