Stat of the Day, 28th August 2015
Good of Luck was a very distant and laboured 4th of 5 runners at Stratford yesterday.
Sent off a 7/2, a half point longer than my advised 3/1 BOG, he looked like defying the market for a while as he was kept very handily tracking the leaders, but he started to weaken 3 flights from home was eventually run out of it.
Back to the Flat and a competitive looking Class 3, open age (3yo+) handicap over a mile and a half aka the…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
Today’s selection is Polarisation, who is quite widely available at 9/2 BOG as of 7.45am (at least six firms offering that price as I know of!)
He’s trained by Mark Johnston and will be ridden by Joe Fanning, which is good for us, because since the start of 2010, Mark is 62/273 (22.7% SR) for 22.7pts (+8.3% ROI) profit in all races here at Hamilton, broken down as follows…
- Male runners are 42/167 (25.2% SR) for 49.5pts (+29.6% ROI)
- LTO winners are 13/30 (43.3% SR) for 39.9pts (+133% ROI)
- Class 3 runners are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.5pts (+30.2% ROI)
His 3 yr old males are 18/59 (30.5% SR) for 38.4pts (65.1% ROI) in handicaps, of which 6 from 14 (42.9% SR) were LTO winners, producing 24.8pts profit at an ROI of 177.1% wih today’s jockey Joe Fanning riding all 6 winners from 13 rides.
Joe himself has a good record here at this track, winning 71 of his 311 (22.8% SR) rides here since the start of the 2008 season, generating 30.1pts (+9.7% ROI) profit for his followers.
He’s 53/192 (27.6% SR) for 65.2pts (+33.9% ROI) on the Johnston runners here and 26/108 (24.1% SR) for 36pts (+33.3% ROI) on Mark’s Hamilton handicappers.
As a 3 yr old in an open age handicap, Polarisation gets a helpful 10lb s weight for age allowance which effectively makes him the highest rated (OR) horse in the race carrying just a pound more than the bottom weight!
Mark Johnston is one of the best trainers at using this allowance to his advantage and his 3yr olds in these open age races are 79/333 (23.% SR) for 84.5pts (+25.4% ROI) since the start of 2008.
With today’s race in mind, those 333 runners are…
- 41/175 (23.4% SR) for 50.5pts (+28.9% ROI) over 1m4f
- 27/106 (25.5% SR) for 25.7pts (+24.3% ROI) under Joe Fanning
- 22/67 (32.8% SR) for 13pts (+19.4% ROI) from LTO winners
- 16/60 (26.7% SR) for 30.2pts (+50.3% ROI) in Class 3 contests
- 13/25 (52% SR) for 44.4pts (+177.6% ROI) here at Hamilton
I took my 9/2 BOG about Polarisation from Coral, because I’ll get my money back if we lose by a head, but to get your preferred bookie’s price…
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