Double Dutch, 29th August 2015
As with Groundhog Day, Double Dutch finally ‘got the girl’ yesterday. Well, maybe not ‘the girl’, but at least ‘a girl’, as Ghalib 3/1 SP and Bleu Astral 7/4 early advised combined for a 10/1 double.
Not retirement plan material but to break the run was important, and it keeps us above the 100 point barrier as well, also psychologically important.
Saturdays are Saturdays: competitive fare everywhere…
Friday’s results were as follows:
Ghalib : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Sir Billy Wright : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
Bleu Astral : WON at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Improvized : 5th at 9/2 (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
661 winning selections from 2345 = 28.19%
209 winning bets in 608 days = 34.38%
P/L : +104.58pts (+8.6% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A couple of Listed lovelies to fire at today, good (and deeper than ideal) races both…
The aptly named Hopeful Stakes is leg one of our Saturday double, and I’m quite sweet on the prospects of Lucky Kristale. George Margarson’s lightly raced four year old is a six furlong specialist, and she’s pretty good too. Having failed to stay seven furlongs and a mile last term, she’s been dropped back to six in 2015, running second in Listed and Group 3 company either side of getting outclassed in a Group 1.
Surprisingly, to me at least, this is her first try on good to soft, just one click softer than good. She’s out of a Pivotal mare, which gives cause for optimism on that score, and she’s quick enough – and classy enough – to prevail in receipt of weight for all nine rivals.
Of the rest, it’s tough to choose between Wet Sail and Portamento, but slight preference is for the latter. My feeling is that the straight six will suit Charlie Appleby’s colt, especially with a spot of ease in the ground.
We’ll be waiting until early evening if we’ve anything to wait for, and another smart Listed heat, this time over a mile and a half. Gospel Choir is a very solid starting point, Sir Michael Stoute’s Galileo colt a bit of a middle distance expert. He’s won five of his nine races at this sort of range, and three of his last four in Pattern company, including two Group 2 wins.
The downside is that he has to give weight away all round and, according to ratings at least, that doesn’t make him the best weighted in the field. Despite that, he’s unarguably the classiest.
Sir Michael and Ted Durcan have been in combative form in recent days, with five wins and three further place in the past fortnight, from 17 starts. That was worth a 13.63 point profit, and I think they might add to it tonight.
The improver most likely to roll the jolly is Richard Hannon’s Gibeon. I tipped him at Goodwood when he won and, though I’m not confident he’s ready for Listed grade yet – this not being an especially weak Listed race – he is on the up and up. The longer trip should suit, and it’s possible Sean Levey will try to make all. He could prove good enough in a race where there are numerous dangers, including most notably Beautiful Romance.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Lucky Kristale / Gospel Choir @ 10.34/1 (10/3 & 13/8 : BetVictor)
Lucky Kristale / Gibeon @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : PP, (18.49 BetVictor))
Portamento / Gospel Choir @ 16.03/1 (11/2 & 13/8 : Coral (14.72/1 BetVictor))
Portamento / Gibeon @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2 : BetVictor)