Stat of the Day, 29th August 2015
Polarisation was backed in from our advised 9/2 to be sent off as 3/1 favourite and was the willing recipient of an excellent and enterprising ride by Joe Fanning.
A while ago at Haydock races, Matt told me that Mr Fanning was one of the best jockeys at judging the pace of a race and that he was incredibly difficult to beat when controlling a race from the front and so it proved yesterday.
He made virtually all the running and kicked on hard with over a furlong to run, opening up an unassailable lead and although the pack came back to him at the end, he was still a length and a half clear of a well strung out field.
Not exactly an obvious pick for Saturday, but one I feel might be overpriced in the…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
Where you can get 7/1 BOG in at least three places (and a couple more non-BOG at the same price) about Tom Sawyer today, who bids to win this race for the second year running.
A 7/1 shot in a Saturday handicap might not seem my usual MO, but I think he’ll go off shorter and he’ll certainly be suited by today’s race conditions. My starting point in that respect is his record on the Flat of 7 wins from 34 starts (20.6% SR) for 15.3pts (+45% ROI) profit, which is decent and breaks down as follows…
- In handicaps : 6/30 (20% SR) for 15pts (+50% ROI)
- Over 5f : 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 20.3pts (+70% ROI)
- At 3/1 to 8/1 : 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 31.3pts (+174% ROI)
- At Class 5 : 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 13.25pts (+101.9% ROI)
- Here at Beverley : 2/4 (50% SR) for 9.82pts (+245.5% ROI)
In 5f flat hcps at 3/1 to 8/1, he is 6/15 (40% SR) for 30pts (+200% ROI), of which he’s 4/10 (40% SR) for 16.25pts (+162.5% ROI), making him 2 from 3 (66.7% SR) for 10.82pts (+360.6% ROI) in such events here at Beverley.
Tom Sawyer runs off a mark of 74 today, but has the benefit of a 3lb claimer on his back, effectively making him 2lbs better off than when winning this race last year and although he was beaten by 1.2 lengths behind the re-opposing Pearl Noir here over C&D last time out, he’s now also 3lbs better off with that opponent.
Jockey Joe Doyle is the 3lb claimer and he’s no mug either, having already on 26 of his 210 (12.4% SR) rides this year for profits of 103.9pts (+49.5% ROI) and he’s 2/9 (22.2% SR) for 6.74pts (+74.9% ROI) here at Beverley this season.
He has ridden 5 winners in total here at Beverley from 14 rides (35.7% SR) on horses priced at 8/1 or shorter and this has generated level stakes profits of 10.3pts (+73.5% ROI) to add another layer of proofing to my selection today.
I’ve taken my 7/1 BOG about Tom Sawyer from Hills and I’ve gone win only, you might want to go E/W or use a different bookie. In which case, you really should…
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