Stat of the Day, 31st August 2015
Jockey Joe Doyle and horse Tom Sawyer did absolutely nothing wrong at Beverley and looked to have timed their run to the line to perfection, but we were all undone by a flying finisher who pipped us in the shadow of the post.
There’s something reassuring about backing a 4/1 runner-up at 7/1 BOG and coming within a neck of pulling off a bit of a gamble, but near misses don’t pay cash! August (and Mondays in particular) has been good to us and whatever happens today, we’ll finish with a handsome profit from the month.
I would, however, like to bow out with one more winner via the…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
And a 5/2 BOG bet on Passover in this 8-runner, Class 3 handicap over 1m2f on soft ground with a horse in great form of late.
In the last 7 seasons, trainer Andrew Balding is 30/163 (18.4% SR) for 107pts (+65.7% ROI) profit here at Epsom. From that record, jockey David Probert is 13/64 (20.3% SR) for 33.7pts (+52.6% ROI)
Passover is 3/5 on the Flat, but 3 from 3 since stepping up to today’s 1m2f trip and was a course and distance winner by 7 lengths here two starts ago and won by the same margin at Sandown last time out, 25 days ago.
In the last 3 seasons, Andrew Balding’s runners returning to the scene of a course and distance win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 25.4pts (+90.7% ROI).
Those runners running at the same trip as last time are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+91.2% ROI) with those priced below 7/2 winning 9 of 17 (52.9% SR) for 8.4pts (+49.4% ROI).
All 3 wins for Passover to date share many of the factors that will be at play today, namely…
- all over 1m2f
- all in races of 7 to 11 runners
- all within 30 days of his last run
- all wearing a hood
- all wearing a tongue tie
- and all below 7/2
I’ve taken my 5/2 BOG about Passover from Coral, as they’ll refund a defeat by a head, but with several other firms offering the same price, you should…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS