Double Dutch, 1st September 2015
August ended as most of the month had been, with a winner and a placed horse. Highpower was too good at Cartmel, but the Downpatrick pair were moderate third and fourth without excuses.
A loss of 21 points on the month was about as bad as we’ve ever had, so a new month is a welcome means of drawing a line under an eminently forgettable August.
We don’t hide from such setbacks – they’re part and parcel of the game – but we are very keen to put the wheels back on the Double Dutch bandwagon.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Highpower : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Classic Palace : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Hurry Kitty : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Mustadrik : 4th at 11/4 (adv 10/3)
Results to date:
662 winning selections from 2353 = 28.13%
209 winning bets in 610 days = 34.26%
P/L : +100.58pts (+8.25% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Heavy ground at Epsom to start us off…
It looked pretty testing on the Downs yesterday, and further rain will make it more of a slog today. The two proven in heavy against a small field who are not are Regal Parade and Kinglami.
The last time Regal Parade ran on this ground was three years ago, when he was second in the Ayr Gold Cup. His powers have waned a tad since then, but the deeper ground is expected to suit him optimally. Placed efforts on his last two starts, both at today’s six furlong range, point to solid recent form.
Kinglami is one from one on heavy, a big field six furlong handicap at Windsor last backend. One of his other two turf wins was on very soft ground, so he’ll appreciate the underfoot. The slight niggle with this one is that all his winning form is at Windsor, a quite different configuration from Epsom. Still, Oisin Murphy’s powers of persuasion will give him every chance in what looks a shallow contest.
With not a lot to go at today I’m going to bravely/stupidly* (*time will tell) sidestep the morning favourite, Sword Of The Lord, in favour of a pair who fit well against conditions.
It’s soft at Goodwood, and the jolly’s third run in a week on testing ground could be a bridge too far. If that’s right, there’s value in the chances of Tilstarr and Galuppi. Tilstarr, one win in 21 flat turf starts, could hardly be described as a win machine, but she has run her best races on soft, including that sole turf victory. She also ran an eye-catching race when staying on over course and distance on good ground a couple of months ago.
Galuppi is very well bred, and this trip and ground might prove optimal after running-on placed efforts on soft at shorter trips. A six race maiden on the flat, he’s been second three times and third once, and with so few miles on the clock he has scope to bag that first win in a pretty ropey old heat.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Regal Parade / Tilstarr @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Regal Parade / Galuppi @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Coral)
Kinglami / Tilstarr @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Coral)
Kinglami / Galuppi @ 19.63/1 (11/4 & 9/2 : Coral)