Stat of the Day, 1st September 2015
Monday’s race developed into something of 4-horse race and despite leading for a large chunk of the contest, Passover didn’t have enough in reserve to hold on and was eventually the last home of that leading quartet.
He was beaten by 4 lengths at the same 5/2 price we’d taken and was a disappointing end to another tremendous month that saw us hit 10 winners from 24 for 24.58pts profit. That’s eight profitable months so far this year!
A full monthly breakdown of SotD is available here and a quick glance at that shows that in 2015, we are 65/193 (33.7% SR) for 105.55pts (+54.7% ROI) and in the last three months the figures are 30/72 (41.67% SR) for 67.07pts (+93.2% ROI)!
That, of course, is the past and September is a new month, so it would be nice to kick off with a winner in the…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
Unfortunately, it’s not a great day stats-wise, but one that I think could be the answer in Mick Channon’s 3yr old gelding, Harlequin Striker, who will be ridden by Charlie Bishop and is priced at 100/30 BOG in at least three places to land back to back wins within 3 weeks.
Not all jockeys are able to keep their horses on a true line here at Epsom, but Charlie Bishop does seem to do pretty well here and is 6 from 12 (50% SR) for 38.8pts (+323.3% ROI) profit on this track over he last two seasons. He’s 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 24.3pts (+303.7% ROI) on horses priced at 7/1 and shorter, of which handicappers are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.1pts (+235% ROI).
Trainer Mick Channon has also tasted success here and since 2009, his runners are 19/152 (12.5% SR) for 13pts (+8.6% ROI) here on the Downs. Those priced at 8/1 or shorter are 15/83 (18.1% SR) for 12.2pts (+14.7% ROI), whilst those ridden by Charlie Bishop are 5/20 (25% SR) for 14.1pts (+70.5% ROI) with all 5 winners coming from the 16 runners (31.25% SR) priced at 8/1 and shorter for profits of 18.1pts (+113.1% ROI).
In handicaps here with horses priced at 13/2 and shorter the Bishop/Channon partnership is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 10.9pts at an ROI of 99.1%.
As for the horse, Harlequin Striker, he is 1 from 3 on this track, having won here almost a year ago over course and distance on the first occasion that Charlie Bishop rode him (they’re now 2/6 together). The horse is 3/10 at 7/7.5f, 1 from 1 on soft ground and has won at a higher grade than this (also under Charlie Bishop!).
Harlequin Striker has finished 112 when sent off shorter than 4/1 and with his three career wins coming off marks of 75 (twice) and 78, today’s OR of 77 looks promising. He has won 2 of 3 starts in the month of September and is three from nine when turned out 9 to 29 days (19 today) since his last run.
He was a winner at Ffos Las last time out and now returns to Epsom for a crack at landing a second course and distance win for Mick Channon, whose runners returning the scene of a CD win after a win anywhere LTO are 8/30 (26.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+68.2% ROI) with Charlie Bishop riding 4 winners from 10 (40% SR) for 16.6pts (+166% ROI), whilst 7f runners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 13.6pts (+169.6% ROI).
So, that’s where we’re at for today : no big blockbuster stat to rely on, but a series of smaller stats that when taken together suggest a run for our money at the very least from Harlequin Striker.
I’m going with Hills for my 100/30 BOG bet today, but to see which other firms are matching that price…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS