Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2015
Harlequin Striker was easy to back yesterday and what looked like a decent price of 100/30 BOG was allowed to drift out to an SP of 5/1. That said, the market isn’t always right and the horse doesn’t know his own odds!
As it was, a combination of grit, determination and some excellent piloting meant we got up by a neck to kick September off with a 5pt profit as Charlie Bishop squeezed a little bit extra from our boy after he’d been temporarily headed inside the final furlong.
A similar result wouldn’t go amiss in Wednesday’s…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
Where the selection is a 3/1 BOG bet on the Royal runner Ring of Truth, to be ridden by Sean Levey for Richard Hannon in this Class 5 contest on Good to Soft ground over a trip 60 yards shy of 6 furlongs (5.73f, I suppose since the distance changes).
Fairly short (and hopefully sweet!) today as the pick mainly revolves around the trainer’s record here and also the horse’s own short career to date. Let’s start with Richard Hannon’s record here at Bath…
The first thing that strikes me is that he has an excellent strike rate of 22% here, acquired by 11 winners from 50 runners, but a slight loss is achieved by blind backing, as his runners do tend to get backed here. That said, taking BOG prices would probably be profitable, but I’m guessing.
Nevertheless, if you backed all those priced at 100/30 or shorter, you’d have 10 winners from 22 (45.5% SR) and 6.9pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 31.3%.
For recently signed up members, I should add that I quote profit figures at Betfair SP, as they’re as close an approximation to BOG I can get and nobody should be taking ISP!
From that 10/22 record above…
- non-handicappers are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 2.68pts (+20.6% ROI)
- 2 yr olds are 5/10 (50% SR) for 2.51pts (+25.1% ROI)
- Novices are 2/2 (100% SR) for 1.82pts (+91% ROI)
And 2015 has been particularly successful for Team Hannon here wit 6 winners from 18 (33.33% SR) for 15.66pts (+87% ROI) and with today’s race/selection in mind, those 18 runners are broken down as follows…
- non-hcps : 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 14.52pts (+121% ROI)
- Class 5 : 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 11.18pts (101.6% ROI)
- 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 8.6pts (+95.6% ROI)
- below 4/1 : 4/8 (50% SR) for 8.6pts (+107.5% ROI)
- beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 3/4 (75% SR) for 7.48pts.
Ring of Truth is lightly raced, making just her fifth start today and came within a short head of a win on debut (Class 4) at Newbury, when finishing a length ahead of subsequent Listed winner Sixth Sense. She then won at Haydock at today’s track and trip, before two defeats in much better races than this one.
She was a very decent/creditable 7th of 20 in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Ascot in June, before getting run out of it at Chester 11 days ago. She looked a little rusty that day, but still managed to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner in a race 3 grades higher than today.
She’s expected to come on for that run and a drop in class allied to a track less tight than Chester should help her here today. One last word is regarding her jockey Sean Levey, for he’s 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 50.9pts (+68.8% ROI) here at Bath.
I’ve gone with 10BET for my 3/1 BOG bet on Ring of Truth, as like Coral, they refund on defeats of a head or less and with at least five other firms matching that price, you really should…
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