Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2015

No joy at Bath on Wednesday afternoon, as Ring of Truth’s challenge faded away in the final furlong and he was eventually beaten by just over five lengths into 4th place of the 7 runners at 7/2, slightly longer than my advised 3/1 odds.

They do that if you don’t initially succeed, then you should try again and that’s what I’m going to do in Thursday’s…

5.20 Salisbury :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.

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If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.

Where I’ve picked another Richard Hannon runner in the guise of the 7/2 BOG Filosofo, who will attempt to defy soft ground conditions in a bid to complete back to back course and distance successes following his win here 3 weeks ago.

Since taking over the reins from his father, Richard (Jnr) has been very successful indeed and Salisbury in particular has been a happy hunting ground with 29 winners from his 151 runners (19.2% SR) here to date that have produced level stakes profits of 37.8pts at an ROI of 25.1%.

Those figures alone would be enough to persuade me to back this horse after his relatively comfortable course and distance win last time out, for which he has only been raised 2lbs. There are, however some angles to derive from the main body of 151 runners, albeit with fairly small sample sizes…

  • those running 16 to 30 days after their last run are 9/54 (16.7% SR) for 20.7pts (+38.4% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 4.5pts (+25% ROI)
  • those priced below 5/1 ridden by Tom Marquand are 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 3.2pts (+106% ROI)

Another angle that ties in loosely with the above is the fact that male runners who won LTO 11 to 45 days ago are 4/8 (50% SR) for 12.7pts (159.1% ROI).

I mentioned Tom Marquand above and he’s of interest here today. This is an apprentices’ race where whips are not to be used, so rider skill/ability will be at the fore and in these races, I like to be on the horse with the best jockey and I’d be confident enough to say that Tom fits that bill here.

He’s in good touch too, having ridden 4 winners in the last week and in apprentice races on fancied horses (2/1 to 7/2) he has six wins from fifteen (40% SR) for 10.86pts (+72.4% ROI).

It’s not the most detailed/in-depth write-up I’ve ever done, but don’t let that deter you from backing Filosofo. I’m more than happy with the pick and I took my 7/2 BOG from the Betfair Sportsbook. At least three other firms were offering the same deal, so please…

…click here for the betting on the 5.20 Salisbury

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Here is today’s racecard.

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