Stat of the Day, 4th September 2015
It’s all very well going with the best jockey in an apprentices race, but if the horse isn’t up to the job on the day, it doesn’t matter who is on board.
Filosofo was very disappointing and weakened considerably in the closing stages to eventually finish 6th of 9 at the same 7/2 odds I’d advised, but well beaten by around 25 lengths.
25 lengths is pretty comprehensive defeat over a mile, but we weren’t the only one getting our digits singed, he was sent off as favourite, so plenty of people were on him.
Often I get on a roll of stringing wins together, but it’s just as easy to hit a run of losers and I hope to break the current iffy form by bagging the winner of Friday’s…
But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I’m away on holiday at present, but I’ve now a daily routine established.
If SotD isn’t now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 7.30am & 8.00am on the day of the race. There are also instant notifications on our Facebook page / Twitter feed.
I’ll be halfway home from Portugal by the time the 11/2 BOG Windy Citi takes to the track, so I’ll not get to see the race live, but I’ll have my fingers crossed instead.
Since the start of 2011, trainer Chris Wall has found plenty of success in A/W handicap contests, saddling up the winner on 50 of 224 (22.3% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 141.3pts (+63.1% ROI).
Of those 224 runners, there were 26 winners from 102 (25.5% SR) here at Kempton, producing 87.4pts (+85.7% ROI) profit and his milers are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 61.4pts at an ROI of 227.5%.
Put the two together and you see that Chris Wall’s 1m handicappers are 8/16 (50% SR) for 52.3pts (+327.1% ROI) which is an excellent return even if you removed today’s runner Windy Citi from the equation. She’s actually 3 from 5 (11321) over this course and distance and backing her in each of those five runs would have netted you 10.3pts profit (+206% ROI).
Windy Citi drops in Class today and since 2008, Chris Wall’s handicappers dropping down a grade are 34/204 (16.7% SR) for 106.5pts (+52.2% ROI) profit.
Of those 204 class droppers, those running 11 to 25 days after their last run are 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 49.9pts (+65.7% ROI), those running over a mile are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 76.2pts (+230.8% ROI) and those running here at Kempton are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 14.8pts at an ROI of 52.8%.
Chris Wall’s 4yr old clearly likes it here and I fancy her to go well again this evening, which is why I’ve taken 11/2 BOG about Windy Citi from Bet365, but to see the other firms’ prices, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS