Stat of the Day, 5th September 2015
We took 11/2 about Windy Citi at Kempton yesterday and I though we have stolen a point of more off the market, but she actually went off at that same price and matching the SP was probably the highlight of the pick!
She was held up well off (too far?) the pace and had plenty to do late on, but found little.
Final result? 6th of 9 at 11/2 and beaten by 7 lengths, a result I’ll be seeking better of in Saturday’s…
I’m back from my holiday now and from Monday, we’ll be settling back into something more like the old routine, where I attempt to get at least the pick out to you the night before racing. Of course, following us on Facebook and/or Twitter is still the best way to know exactly when I’ve posted.
And a 3/1 BOG bet on Philip Hobbs’ 9 yr old chaser Carrigmorna King, who will be ridden by Richard Johnson today.
The Hobbs’ chasers have been in fine fine form of late with the last 25 runners (spread over 16 weeks, so no short purple patch!) producing 8 winners (32% SR) and 10.5pts profit at an ROI of 42%.
Of those 25 runners, there was a 6/21 (28.6% SR) record in handicaps generating 10pts (+47.5% ROI) profit, whilst Richard Johnson rode 6 winners from 17 (43.8% SR) for 14pts (+87.7% ROI) and there were 5 winners from the 8 Stratford (62.5% SR) runners, making a further 19.6pts (+244.9% ROI) profit.
In the last 16 weeks, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+216.1% ROI) from a run that started with Carrigmorna King‘s win here over 2m4f on 17th May.
More longer-term, Philip Hobbs’ chasers are 12/28 here at Stratford since the start of 2013, producing level stakes profits of 35pts (+125.1% ROI) with his handicappers winning 11 of 26 (42.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+131.6% ROI).
Richard Johnson’s tally from those 28 chasers is 7 wins from 17 (41.2% SR) for 15.9pts (+93.5% ROI) and since the start of 2013, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 6/15 (40% SR) for 15.1pts (+100.5% ROI).
Carrigmorna King is only 3/17 over fences, but has two wins under Richard Johnson, two wins at this Class 3 level (2131 last four runs) and is 2 from 2 here at Stratford, having won over 2m4f and 2m 5.5f. He’s never won at this trip over fences, but has a runner-up finish to his name and stays 3 miles comfortably enough, suggesting 2m 6.5f is within his reach on his favoured track.
He was admittedly well beaten last time out, but I’m willing to overlook that run, as he’d been stepped up to Listed Class for the Summer Plate and this Class 3 contest is far more suitable as he now drops back down in grade and since the start of 2012, Philip Hobbs’ chasers dropping down in grade and running at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 are 28/118 (23.7% SR) for 55pts (+46.6% ROI).
Richard Johnson is 16/68 (23.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+43.8% ROI) on those class droppers, whilst those running here at Stratford are 3/6 (50% SR) for 6.6pts at an ROI of 110.4%.
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