Stat of the Day, 8th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2015

I mentioned in Monday’s piece that Frankie Dettori was in fine form and that he had a good record at Windsor. Well, he came away with three winners and two runners-up from six rides for another successful day for himself and his Windsor followers.

Unfortunately for SotD, Etienne Gerard was one of the runners-up, despite a strong finish to the race. He seemed lethargic mid-race and Frankie was working hard from a long way out and by the time he finally got the horse motoring it was a touch too late and we slipped to a half length defeat at 9/4, quite a bit shorter than our advised 7/2.

If only it had been a 6.5f race, etc etc! Anyway, none of the ifs, buts and maybes, let’s crack on with Tuesday’s pick, which runs in the…

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6.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over two miles on good to firm ground, where I’ve just taken 5/1 BOG from Coral about Iain Jardine’s 8yr old mare, Push Me.

Since the start of 2012, Iain Jardine’s NH handicappers are 8 from 60 (13.3% SR) for decent level stakes profits of 26.7pts at an ROI of 44.5% and if we focus on the horses priced in the 9/4 to 10/1 range, we end up with 7 winners from 30 (23.3% SR) and 26.2pts (+87.5% ROI). And the yard is in good nick, too, with 4 winners and 4 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight.

Push Me was placed third last time out, when beaten by 3.5 lengths at Sedgefield just five days ago and is quickly turned out in a bid to improve upon that result and this sudden reappearance is of interest to me, as it flags the horse up on a couple of microsystems I follow…

  1. Handicap hurdlers running at trips of 2m to 2m 1.5f who ran in a handicap contest 4 or 5 days ago are 64/271 (23.6% SR) for 247.2pts (+91.2% ROI) since 2009, provided they’d had at least one other run in the previous two months.
  2. 8/9 year old hcp hurdlers priced at 11/4 to 7/1 who are running within 7 days of their last run and have ran at least one other race in the previous three months are 86/373 (23.1% SR) for 142.2pts (+38.2% ROI) since the start of 2008 with this particular strategy showing a profit every year.

And whilst that might seem a little short and sweet, that’s my reasoning behind my selection of Push Me.As I said earlier, I’ve taken 5/1 BOG from Coral, but to see the state of the whole market once it unfolds…

…click here for the betting on the 6.40 Perth

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Here is today’s racecard.

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