Double Dutch, 8th September 2015
It might be a little premature to get the bunting out just yet, but Monday was, at least, a good day for us.
Two winners, a runner-up, a third placer and a modest little 4/1 forecast represented a happier return than we’ve been getting of late and even the dreaded 15p Rule 4 deduction freom race 2 couldn’t dampen the spirits, despite reducing a 13.08/1 double down to 11.46/1.
It’s not life-changing money, but hopefully the first step of a recovery mission!
Monday’s results were as follows:
Heartsong : WON at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
Escrick : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
The forecast paid £5.02 here.
Maraweh : WON at 11/4 (adv 10/3 = 17/6 after R4)
Rosie Revenue : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 2/1 = 17/0 after R4)
Results to date:
664 winning selections from 2377 = 27.93%
210 winning bets in 616 days = 34.09%
P/L : +94.81pts (+7.70% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesday’s (again largely stat-based!) selections are as follows…
I backed English Summer when he was a convincing 6 lengths winner of the Amateur Derby over today’s trip on Bank Holiday Monday last week and I fancy him to go in again today at a generally available 7/2 BOG. This race is obviously tougher than last week’s effort, but a quick glance at his career stats suggest conditions are ideal for him today…
He’s 11/44 in races of 4 to 10 runners, 11/34 at odds of 6/1 and shorter, 10/32 at 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs, 9/32 at Class 4/5, 6/19 since a switch to Richard Fahey and 6/14 when running within 10 days of his last outing, all of which suggest a good run for our money from English Summer.
At up to 11/2 BOG, High and Flighty looks a little more speculative on her handicap debut. This 3yr old filly was a winner on debut at Ripon 5 weeks ago and her trainer David O’Meara has a 27.1% SR in Leicester handicaps and a 20.2% SR with 2 to 4 yr olds making their Flat handicap debuts.
David also has a 19.6% SR with his handciappers having their second run in a 90-day period and with High and Flighty being a 3 yr old in an open age handicap, she’ll get a generous 9lbs weight for age allowance, effectively making her bottom weight here today.
If we emerge unscathed from a tricky race 1, we’ll have a decent stake for race 2, where I’m playing it a little more cautiously with two fancied runners.
Hunt Ball is now 10yrs old and clearly isn’t the top grade chaser he used to be, but has seemed to be rejuvenated by the switch to hurdling, as he’s 2 from 2 since dropping down to the smaller obstacles. He’s been off the track for 108 days since absolutely cruising home here over course and distance, winning by 8 lengths at ease, but the layoff is hardly likely to be detrimental.
He runs off the same 135 mark as last time out, which is considerably lower than his last chasing mark of 153, when 4th in the Gr3 Topham at Aintree in April and in respect to today’s conditions, he’s 1/1 at Worcester via that C&D win LTO, he’s 10/12 when sent off as fav/jt fav, 8/11 at odds below 5/2 and 5/9 on good ground.
He’s also 8/10 at Class 4/5 level and has won half of his 16 races of 10 runners of less, making Hunt Ball of considerable interest here at 7/4 BOG.
He won’t have it all his own way and might struggle to concede a stone to Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Mont Choisy, a lightly raced 5 yr old making only his third start. He also was a C&D winner here LTO, but that was 16 days ago and his record now reads 121 after winniong his bumper here at Worcester too, with a 4 length defeat at Newton Abbot on his hurdles debut between the two Worcester runs.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is a man to follow in late summer/early autumn and over the last 10 seasons, his jumpers aged 5 to 8 years old have a 24.8% strike rate in the months of August to October with each of the 10 seasons showing a profit from blind backing, so if you like Mont Choisy, you can get 2/1 BOG about him.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
English Summer / Hunt Ball @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
English Summer / Mont Choisy @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : widely available)
High and Flighty / Hunt Ball @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
High and Flighty / Mont Choisy @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : widely available)