Stat of the Day, 9th September 2015
A strange one yesterday (Tuesday), as Push Me was withdrawn shortly before the off time, citing the going as the reason for her no-participation. An everyday occurrence in itself, but if you consider than she runs better on good ground than good to firm, I’d have thought she’d have been good to go.
I’d expected the track to be slower when putting her forward, so I was a bit bemused by the decision. I’m more inclined to believe the real reason was one that the stewards wouldn’t waive a fine for, but I’m a cynic!
Anyway, non runners = no bets and no bets = no profit, so let’s find a Wednesday winner from the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Where jockey Phillip Makin will ride the 4yr old colt Jacob Black for trainer Keith Dalgleish and the team are priced at 4/1 BOG to land this Class 3, 1 mile handicap on ground that is currently good to firm (good in places), but will probably end up as good after it has been watered!
The trainer, Keith Dalgleish…
…is 33 from 185 (17.8% SR) for for 55.6pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Carlisle, broken down as follows…
- handicaps : 31/149 (20.8% SR) for 82.2pts (+55.1% ROI)
- male horses : 23/132 (17.4% SR) for 42.6pts (+32.3% ROI)
- those priced 2/1 to 15/2 : 27/93 (29% SR) for 68.2pts (73.3% ROI)
- those ridden by Phillip Makin : 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+57% ROI)
Phillip, himself, rides this track well…
With 18 winners from 105 rides (17.1% SR) over the last five seasons producing level stakes profits of 37.2pts at an ROI of 35.4%, of which male horses are 12/75 (16% SR) for 29.6pts (+39.5% ROI) whilst in handicaps he has 15 winners from 74 (20.3% SR) for 58.1pts (+78.5% ROI).
And what about Jacob Black?
Well, the horse is 4 from 12 (33.33% SR) for 7.8pts (+64.8% ROI) to date with all four career wins coming at odds below 5/1 on right handed tracks over trips of 8/8.5 furlongs on good to firm/good ground. He’s 2/2 here at Carlisle, having landed a pair of course and distance handicaps here around this time last year.
Conditions look ideal for jockey, trainer and horse and the relationships between themselves which is why I took that 4/1 BOG from Hills at 9.45pm. 7/2 BOG now seems the general consensus and if you prefer and/or need to use another firm, then I suggest that you…
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