Double Dutch, 9th September 2015
Tuesday went a very similar way to Monday, in as far as we had two winners and therefore a double and also the first two home in one of our chosen races, giving us a small bonus forecast/exacta.
I was keen on English Summer and despite a big drift (7/2 to 6/1) in the pre-race market, he won really well once again to set the stall up nicely for the veteran Hunt Ball to round off a very pleasant 15 minute spell in mid-afternoon for us, especially as the drift in price made for a healthy 18.25/1 double.
Tuesday’s results were as follows:
English Summer : WON at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
High and Flighty : 6th at 11/2 (adv 5/1)
Hunt Ball : WON at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Mont Choisy : 2nd at 11/10 (adv 2/1)
The exacta paid £4.20 here.
Results to date:
666 winning selections from 2381 = 27.97%
211 winning bets in 617 days = 34.20%
P/L : +102.44pts (+8.30% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Wednesday looks a little tough, but I’m aiming to land a hat-trick of stat based doubles today, by taking on two favourites. It makes the bets a little more risky, but more rewardsing if it comes off…
The presence of the fairly warm favourite Parish Business means there’s value to be had by avoiding him and despite him being the class horse in the race, I just fear for his fitness slightly after a break of over 21 weeks and is therefore passed over in favour of these two…
Ballykan is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies and his 5 to 10 yr old chasers are 60/246 (24.4% SR) for 107.3pts (+43.6% ROI) during the August-October period in the last six seasons. In September alone, the figures are 16/46 (34.8% SR) for 42.8pts (+93% ROI).
The record here at Uttoxeter is 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 28.8pts (+239.7% ROI) and here in September races, his chasers are 3/5 (60% SR) for 31.4pts (+628.6% ROI) and based on those numbers, Ballykan looks to have an excellent chance at 5/1 BOG.
Mile House looks to have a decent profile for a race of this type, having a 4/10 record (40% SR) to date that has already produced level stakes profits of 24.5pts. And in no particular order, he is…
4/10 under today’s jockey and 4/8 going left handed,
3/6 in non-hcps, 3/5 on good ground, 3/4 (1112) in fields of 4 to 7 runners,
2/4 at odds below 7/2 and 2/3 at this Class 4 level, making Mile House look quite attractive at 3/1 BOG today.
Both my picks here are seeking hat tricks and they both stand a very good chance on form alone of landing this contest, but there are also some stats to support each of them.
Knight Music comes here in fantastic nick having won his last two races (both over today’s trip) by a combined 20 lengths! Two starts ago, he won here over course and distance by 11 lengths and then followed that up with a heavy ground success at Brighton two weeks ago when coasting home by 9 lengths.
A/W handicappers racing over 1m2f to 1m4f who won by 5l or more LTO 11 to 45 days ago are 26/81 (32.1% SR) for 36.1pts (+44.5% ROI) since the start of 2011 and Knight Music fits that bill and boasts a 3/5 record at this trip, is 3/4 under today’s jockey and is 3/3 at this trip with this jockey, making his current 7/2 BOG odds look rather appealing.
El Campeon also seeks a third win at this trip on the bounce, having won at Lingfield 20 days ago and again at Epsom eight days ago. Although he’s up in weight today, the excess is negated by the positive booking of Tom Marquand who rides his 5lb claim very well and with the apprentices’ title in his sights, you can be sure he’ll be giving his all here.
Tom is 9/48 (18.75% SR) for 87.8pts (+182.9% ROI) in the last fortnight as he tries to see off Jack Garrity and trainer Simon Dow has a decent enough record in handciaps when using a 5lb claimer, winning 12 of 85 (14.1% SR) races since the start of 2010 for profits of 80.7pts (+94.9% ROI) with Class 4/5 runners winning 8 of 46 (17.4% SR) for 89.5pts (+94.6% ROI) with El Campeon priced at 9/2 BOG to become the next on that list of winners.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Mile House / Knight Music @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : widely available)
Mile House / El Campeon @ 21/1 (3/1 & 9/2 : Hills)
Ballykan / Knight Music @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Ballykan / El Campeon @ 29/1 (5/1 & 4/1 : Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)