Stat of the Day, 10th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2015

With a furlong to run on Wednesday, it looked veery much like we were in with a good shout of landing ourselves a nice 4/1 winner courtesy of the strong-travelling Jacob Black, but his challenged unravelled coming the hill.

He very quickly went from going along really comfortably to struggling under pressure as the pack closed in around him. He didn’t find as much as his pursuers did and was eventually beaten by four lengths back in 6th place of 11 runners as a 7/2 favourite, a half point shorter than advised.

I feel like I’m scratching about for a bit of form this week, which is inevitable after the long run of recent success, but I’ll keep on plugging away in the hope that we’ve a bit more luck/joy in Thursday’s…

8.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where the play is a 7/2 BOG bet on Red Invader, who was a 6/1 winner for us just over five weeks ago when successful at Carlisle and will now look to add to his excellent record over the minimum trip here.

I’m going to keep it pretty simple for this selection with none of the complicated microsystems I often turn to! Quite simply, we’ve got a horse suited by cxonditions ridden by a jockey who rides this track very well, especially on horses considered “to have a chance”.

Let’s start with the horse…

Red Invader is 1 from 1 here at Chelmsford, courtesy of a course and distance win in June of this year and his overall record at this 5f trip is excellent with four wins from seven and newver out of the first four home in a sequence reading 1411312.

He’s 1 from 1 under Luke Morris from that afore-mentioned C&D win and he has won five of 14 races featuring 6 to 11 runners, of which he’s four from five at today’s trip.

And our jockey…

Luke Morris has already ridden 22 winners from 72 starts (30.6% SR) on this track in its various guises during 2008 and 2015. These winners have generated 46.1pts of level stakes profits at an ROI of 64.1% and if you wanted to be a bit more restrictive…

Luke Morris/ Classes 4 to 6 / Chelmsford handicaps / 5f to a mile / at odds of 6/5 to 15/2 : you get 11 winners from 27 (40.7% SR) for 37.84pts (+140.1% ROI)

and thats about it!

I took my 7/2 BOG from Totesport (Betfred were also offering the same deal) and to see a fuller picture of the market…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Chelmsford

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Here is today’s racecard.

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