Double Dutch, 10th September 2015
We failed to land the “treble of doubles” yesterday,. but not before the 5/1 Ballykan became our 5th winner on the bounce this week to maintain the Twiston-Davies yard’s fine recent form.
This meant that by the time they set off at Kempton, we were holding tickets for doubles at 26/1 & 38/1 and it was the latter of the two that we came closest to collecting.
That said, both El Campeon (5th and bt by 6.25L) and Knight Music (10th and by by 10.5L) were disappointing, failing to see out the trip fully as they both faded from contention in the final furlong from promising positions.
So, the mini-run of form ended there and we’ll now need to start a new one!
Wednesday’s results were as follows:
Ballykan : WON at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
Mile House : UR at 5/1 (adv 3/1)
El Campeon : 5th at 11/2 (adv 9/2)
Knight Music : 10th at 2/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
667 winning selections from 2385 = 27.97%
211 winning bets in 618 days = 34.14%
P/L : +100.44pts (+8.13% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Thursday takes us to the following contests…
Royal History is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor, whose runners are 9/22 in the last fortnight and he’ll be ridden by the in-form Aiden Coleman who has 8 wins from 24 in the same time frame, making them the most likely to prevail here at 3/1 BOG.
Today is Royal History‘s handicap debut as he steps up in trip and with the yard having a 20.1% strike rate with handicap debutants over the last eight seasons, you can expect a decent run here, especially considering that 25.6% of the Suroor handicap debutants win when stepped up in trip by 1 to 3 furlongs.
Serenity Now has a fair few more miles on the clock, but comes here in the peak of his form having finished 1112 in his last four outings and only touched off by half a length last time out over 1m6f. Prior to that he had won over today’s trip and the drop back should help here.
He might only have 4 wins from 24 starts overall, but those races can be assessed based on today’s conditions as follows : 4/16 running 7 to 30 days after his last run, 4/13 in handicaps, 4/10 in fields of 8 to 10 runners and 2/6 at this trip. He has won at Hexham in the past, which is probably the most similarly undulating track to Epsom he’ll have encountered and I think Serenity Now stands a decent chance at 5/1 BOG.
I love watching the races from Laytown and even more so when there’s a chance fo finding a winner! USA has the benefit of running in this race in each of the last three seasons, emerging with one win and one runner-up finish. Nina Carberry was on board for that win and she’s back in the saddle again today and at 2/1 BOG USA has to be on the shortlist.
Talented Kid, however is rated 15lbs better than USA and even further clear of the rest of the field and although he seemed to lose his way in the UK after winnnig a Windsor maiden for Mark Johnston, he did eventually achieve a mark of 90, suggesting there’s definitely some ability there.
He ran well enough on his debut for his new yard last time out and providing another 9-month layoff hasn’t had too much effect on him, he should be suited by conditions and Talented Kid would just be my marginal pick at 2/1 BOG.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Royal History / Talented Kid @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Coral)
Royal History / USA @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Serenity Now / Talented Kid @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Serenity Now / USA @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Ladbrokes)