Stat of the Day, 11th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2015

Red Invader was backed as though defeat was unthinkable at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, when our advised 7/2 bet shortened to as low as 5/4 by the scheduled off time.

The race was about 8 minutes late getting away, by which time our runner had eased a little to 6/4, but plenty of people will have ended up with burnt fingers, I’m afraid.

He was slow/awkward away from the stalls and had to be ridden to maintain a reasonable position on the inside, but Luke Morris put everything he had  into getting the horse into a winnable position with a furlong to go, only to see the horse’s effort wane and peter out in the closing stages to finish 4th of 7 around 3.5 lengths off the pace.

It hasn’t been the best of times over the past week or so, but these runs are inevitable. I will however reiterate that getting 233% of SP is a surefire way of making profit in the long run, even if we’re in a temporary flat spot!

The weekend is almost upon us, so I could do with finding a winner in the…

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4.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

And it’s Roger Varian trained and Andrea Atzeni ridden 4 yr old gelding by the name of Toofi, who is currently (5.20pm Thursday!) available at 4/1 BOG with Betfred (and, of course, Totesport!) for this Class 2, 6.5f handicap contest.

Roger Varian is one of the trainers I look out for in flat handicap contests, as his 124 winners from 627 (19.8% SR) record is profitable to the tune of 95.2pts at an ROI of 15.2% and his ‘cappers here on Town Moor are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 51.4pts (+131.9% ROI) profit.

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a good record here too, having ridden 30 winners from 175 (17.1% SR) rides for profits of 56.8pts (+32.4% ROI), of which his mounts priced at 5/2 to 12/1 are 22/111 (19.8% SR) for 66.8pts (+60.2% ROI) and 4 yr old runners are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 38.2pts (+115.7% ROI).

Andrea Atzeni’s record on 4yr olds priced 5/2 to 12/1 here at Doncaster stands at 7/25 (28% SR) for 46.2pts (+184.8% ROI).

When Andrea rides for Roger Varian, you can also expect to collect from the bookies on a regular basis, as the team are currently 96/473 (20.3% SR) for 61pts (+12.9% ROI), broken down as follows…

  • 6f to 7.5f races : 44/190 (23.2% SR) for 82.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • 4yr olds : 15/64 (23.4% SR) for 20.3pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • Doncaster runners priced at 5/1 and shorter : 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 21.1pts (+117.2% ROI)

When last seen three weeks ago, the 4yr old Toofi was running in Listed company and now drops in class to run here in a Class 2 contest and Roger Varian’s Class droppers are 33/148 (22.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+15.6% ROI) in handicaps and in relation to this race, they are…

  • 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.1pts (+31% ROI) when dropping down 1 grade
  • 25/113 (22.1% SR) for 23.1pts (+20.4% ROI) on Turf
  • 9/31 (29% SR) for 15.4pts (+49.6% ROI) with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle
  • 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 4.2pts (+60% ROI) here at Doncaster

Roger Varian’s Flat Handicappers dropping down 1 grade to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+98.1% ROI) with those priced below 9/2 winning 6 of 9 (66.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+162.3% ROI)

I took my 4/1 BOG about Toofi from Totesport, because I’ve more money in that account than my Betfred one, but if you’re not with either of those, then you’ll need to…

…click here for the betting on the 4.15 Doncaster

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Here is today’s racecard.

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