Stat of the Day, 11th September 2015
Red Invader was backed as though defeat was unthinkable at Chelmsford on Thursday evening, when our advised 7/2 bet shortened to as low as 5/4 by the scheduled off time.
The race was about 8 minutes late getting away, by which time our runner had eased a little to 6/4, but plenty of people will have ended up with burnt fingers, I’m afraid.
He was slow/awkward away from the stalls and had to be ridden to maintain a reasonable position on the inside, but Luke Morris put everything he had into getting the horse into a winnable position with a furlong to go, only to see the horse’s effort wane and peter out in the closing stages to finish 4th of 7 around 3.5 lengths off the pace.
It hasn’t been the best of times over the past week or so, but these runs are inevitable. I will however reiterate that getting 233% of SP is a surefire way of making profit in the long run, even if we’re in a temporary flat spot!
The weekend is almost upon us, so I could do with finding a winner in the…
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And it’s Roger Varian trained and Andrea Atzeni ridden 4 yr old gelding by the name of Toofi, who is currently (5.20pm Thursday!) available at 4/1 BOG with Betfred (and, of course, Totesport!) for this Class 2, 6.5f handicap contest.
Roger Varian is one of the trainers I look out for in flat handicap contests, as his 124 winners from 627 (19.8% SR) record is profitable to the tune of 95.2pts at an ROI of 15.2% and his ‘cappers here on Town Moor are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 51.4pts (+131.9% ROI) profit.
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a good record here too, having ridden 30 winners from 175 (17.1% SR) rides for profits of 56.8pts (+32.4% ROI), of which his mounts priced at 5/2 to 12/1 are 22/111 (19.8% SR) for 66.8pts (+60.2% ROI) and 4 yr old runners are 7/33 (21.2% SR) for 38.2pts (+115.7% ROI).
Andrea Atzeni’s record on 4yr olds priced 5/2 to 12/1 here at Doncaster stands at 7/25 (28% SR) for 46.2pts (+184.8% ROI).
When Andrea rides for Roger Varian, you can also expect to collect from the bookies on a regular basis, as the team are currently 96/473 (20.3% SR) for 61pts (+12.9% ROI), broken down as follows…
- 6f to 7.5f races : 44/190 (23.2% SR) for 82.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
- 4yr olds : 15/64 (23.4% SR) for 20.3pts (+31.7% ROI)
- Doncaster runners priced at 5/1 and shorter : 10/18 (55.6% SR) for 21.1pts (+117.2% ROI)
When last seen three weeks ago, the 4yr old Toofi was running in Listed company and now drops in class to run here in a Class 2 contest and Roger Varian’s Class droppers are 33/148 (22.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+15.6% ROI) in handicaps and in relation to this race, they are…
- 30/123 (24.4% SR) for 38.1pts (+31% ROI) when dropping down 1 grade
- 25/113 (22.1% SR) for 23.1pts (+20.4% ROI) on Turf
- 9/31 (29% SR) for 15.4pts (+49.6% ROI) with Andrea Atzeni in the saddle
- 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 4.2pts (+60% ROI) here at Doncaster
Roger Varian’s Flat Handicappers dropping down 1 grade to be ridden by Andrea Atzeni are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 17.7pts (+98.1% ROI) with those priced below 9/2 winning 6 of 9 (66.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+162.3% ROI)
I took my 4/1 BOG about Toofi from Totesport, because I’ve more money in that account than my Betfred one, but if you’re not with either of those, then you’ll need to…
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