Double Dutch, 11th September 2015
For the fourth year in a row, USA acquitted himself well on the Laytown and had he not blown the start, he may well have won as opposed to the half length defeat he suffered.
He was making ground on the leader with every stride, but the line came too quickly and that run was as good as it got for us all day. Our other runner on the sand was a further 6.5 lengths further back, beating only one rival home, but all of this was immaterial anyway, because…
…I’d already bombed out at Epsom earlier, where all I could manage was 5th and 8th of 10 runners, beaten by 9L & 13L respectively on another of those days to forget.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
Serenity Now : 5th at 9/2 (adv 5/1)
Royal History : 8th at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
USA : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Talented Kid : 5th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
667 winning selections from 2389 = 27.92%
211 winning bets in 619 days = 34.09%
P/L : +98.44pts (+7.95% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how I’m playing it on Friday….
Where it’s hard to see much further than the 2/1 BOG favourite Gutaifan who clearly sets the standard on form with a win in the Gr2 Prix Robert Papin and a runner-up finish over 6f in the Gr 1 Prix Morny, where he led until the final furlong and wasn’t disgraced in losing to Shalaa. Favourite have a very good record (5 of the last 9 renewals) in this race and he looks to fit the profile of a winner here today.
In fact, according to Nick Hardman of the BIC, the winner of this race tends to have a profile of… a rating of 103+, running after a 16-30 day break, a winner at 5f, has run at 6f or further, has run 3 to 6 times this season and is trained by either Richard Hannon or Kevin Ryan. Gutaifan ticks all those boxes here.
The danger could well come from Bear Cheek, a 2yr old filly who is 2 from 2 so far, with both wins coming over this 5f trip, the latest being a comfortable victory in the Gr3 Curragh Stakes three weeks ago. The ground shouldn’t be an issue and her 3lb allowance could play a big role here.
She’s trained by Ger Lyons and is his only runner at the track today and with sole track entries, Ger is 24/100 for 61.9pts in the last three seasons and those runners, like Bear Cheek, who are his only runners anywhere on the day, are 23/88 (26.1% SR) for 71.1pts (+80.9% ROI) with this horse standing more than a fighting chance of extending that record by winning at 7/2 BOG (Coral).
Powderhorn likes to get out quickly and will therefore be suited by being drawn in stall 2 today. He won well over this trip at Lingfield a month ago and was possibly unlucky to bump into a promising juvenile on his handicap debut last time out, when second to Hawkbill who was completing the middle leg of a hat trick of wins over 7f.
Franny Norton rides Powderhorn for Mark Johnston today and the pair are 24/107 (22.4% SR) for 97.7pts (+91.33% ROI) together here on the Roodee and their record with 2yr olds here at the sharper end of the market (9/2 and shorter) reads 9/21 (42.9% SR) for 7.6pts (+36.1% ROI), suggesting at least a run for our money at 7/2 BOG.
The challenge will hope fully come from Charlie Appleby’s Valko, the yard is in good form (6/21 in the last week) and the horse was a winner last time out, when scoring over 6f at Kempton, but looking like today’s longer trip would suit him better. He came from very wide and was staying on strongly at the end, suggesting plenty more to come.
Handicap/nursery debut for this one today and Charlie Appleby’s handicap debutants priced at 8/1 or shorter have won 40 of their 136 (29.4% SR) races for 39.1pts with today’s jockey Adam Kirby riding 5 winners from 13 (38.5% SR) for 8pts (+61.7% ROI) profit, making Valko of serious interest here at 9/2 BOG.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Gutaifan / Powderhorn @ 12.50/1 (2/1 & 7/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Gutaifan / Valko @ 14.13/1 (7/4 & 9/2 : Betway)
Bear Cheek / Powderhorn @ 19.25/1 (7/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
Bear Cheek / Valko @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1 : BetVictor & Coral)