Double Dutch, 12th September 2015
Friday was a good day for us as we landed a third double in five days with two winners prevailing by a head apiece.
Gutaifan kicked things off but taking control with a furlong to run at Doncaster and was pretty comfortable, despite the margins looking tight and then 45 minutes later at Chester, Powderhorn got out quickly as I’d predicted and made all to win gamely.
Both winners attracted market support to the extent that our 12.5/1 BOG double only paid 9.31/1 at SP, giving us a reminder of the importance of taking the early BOG offerings. We got 34% above SP and that’s money we don’t want to leave on the table.
Friday’s results were as follows:
Gutaifan : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Bear Cheek : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Powderhorn : WON at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
Valko : 8th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Results to date:
669 winning selections from 2393 = 27.96%
212 winning bets in 620 days = 34.19%
P/L : +103.19pts (+8.33% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Saturday is our last play of the week and I’ll bow out with these…
This Is For You makes his handicap debut here on a fairly lenient looking mark of 75 after a comfortable two length victory at Chepstow just over three weeks ago. He had to work to get a lead with a furlong to go, but once he hit the front, he found more and stayed on well, suggesting another 100 yards or so today won’t be the reason for any possible defeat.
Since 2010, Andrew Balding’s 2 to 5 yr old handicappers here at Chester are 23/79 (29.1% SR) for 55.8pts (70.6% ROI) with David Probert riding 10 winners from 35 (28.6% SR) of them, generating profits of 14.6pts (+41.8% ROI). This Is For You is currently priced at 5/2 BOG and of those 35 rides for David Probert, he’s 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 16.7pts (+119.4% ROI) on horses priced at 4/1 and shorter.
I can only assume that Ejaazah is as long as 5/1 BOG, because she’s conceding a whole stone to the favourite, but she has won on her only visit to this track when she stayed on well to land a 5f sprint by a couple of lengths, beating a couple of subsequent winners in the process. Her two runs since then have both been in Listed company where she has finished a respectable 2nd and 5th with this representing a major drop in class.
Richard Hannon’s flat handicap debutants priced at 11/1 or shorter are 24/119 (20.2% SR) for 40.1pts (+33.7% ROI) and whilst I’m not a big fan of alleged draw bias, the shorter trips here at Chester do tend to favour those drawn low and since 2009 in 2yo handicap contests over 5 to 7 furlongs, stall 1 has won 13 of 33 races (39.4% SR) for profits of 54.5pts (+165.2% ROI) and is profitable irrespective of the number of runners.
Adele was a winner at Hamilton last time out 11 days ago after knocking on the door for a while in previous outings. She was doing all her best work in the closing stages, only hitting the front late on to win by half a length. Dhular Dhar was almost 7 lengths behind her that day, but that 13 yr old (yes, 13!) then stepped up in trip to today’s course and distance to win here last Friday.
Joe Fanning has ridden 46 winners from 178 (25.8% SR) rides in handicaps for Mark Johnston here at Musselburgh over the last eight seasons, producing 71.8pts profit (+40.4% ROI) and having ridden Adele to victory last time out, has chosen her of the three Johnston runners in this race today. If the form from Hamilton works out and Joe has chosen correctly, then we’re looking at a winner at 5/2 BOG.
I’d expect the biggest threat to come from Maxwell, who currently trades at around the 7/2 BOG mark and he comes here in good nick having won three of his five starts this year, only being beaten in a higher grade than today. He’s 2 from 3 this year on good to firm ground, 2 from 3 going right handed and has won all three of races of 10 runners or less.
He has won his only effort at this Class 3 level and is Ralph Beckett’s only runner at this track today. Regular readers of my “work” (how pretentious does that sound?) will know that I’m a Ralph Beckett fan (mainly because I can make money from him) and his runners throw up plenty of workable microsystems, but one of the simplest is to back horses that are his only runner at a track. Since the start of 2008, this angle has 249 winners from 1384 (18% SR) and 346.1pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 25%
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
This Is For You / Adele @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
This Is For You / Maxwell @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor & Totesport)
Ejaazah / Adele @ 18.25/1 (9/2 & 5/2 : Betfair Sports & Coral)
Ejaazah / Maxwell @ 23.75/1 (9/2 & 7/2 : Hills & Coral)