Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2015

Another non-runner on Saturday (our third from my last seven picks!) means I’ve nothing to report on from the weekend, which is probably just as well, considering I’m running a tad late.

Monday looks tough from a stats perspective and low on quality to boot, but I’m hopeful of a decent run in the…

3.00 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a Class 6 handicap for 3yr olds and older and the trip is a mile and a half on reportedly good ground and a race in which I’ve taken 100/30 BOG about Clive Cox’s 3yr old gelding Duc de Seville and I’ll be hoping the Duke helps me out of a sticky patch today.

Now, Brighton racecourse is hardly the other end of the country from Clive Cox’s base in Lambourn (it’s miles from me, but that’s irrelevant!), so there must be another reason why he doesn’t send many runners here. And as well as it not being the travelling, it surely can’t be down to a lack of success either.

In fact, the last 13 seasons (including this one) have seen just 35 runners from Clive’s yard make their way onto this track, but 10 of them have been winners with that tremendous 28.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 33.6pts at an ROI of 96%.

So, Brighton hosts around 20 fixtures a season and Clive sends around 3 runners a year here, so it’s no surprise to find out that Duc de Seville will be travelling here on his own, but sending just one runner to a track often pays dividends for Mr Cox and over the last three seasons, these solo entrants are 69/438 (15.8% SR) for 98.9pts (+22.6% ROI) profit and in respect of this race, those 438 runners are…

  • 42/275 (15.3% SR) for 91.2pts (+33.2% ROI) profit in handicaps
  • 84/138 (20.7% SR) for 109pts (+59.2% ROI) from 3yr olds
  • 6/35 (17.1% SR) for 8pts (+22.9% ROI) at Class 6
  • 5/17 (29.4% SR) for 12.6pts (+73.9% ROI) at this 1m4f trip
  • 3/6 (50% SR) for 15pts (+250% ROI) here at Brighton.

Of the above, 3yo handicappers at classes 4 to 6 inclusive are 24/111 (231.6% SR) for 97pts at an ROI of 87.4% with a 2 from 2 record here at Brighton and a record of 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+78% ROI) in these 3yo+ open age handicaps where the 3yr olds get a weight for age allowance, 9lbs on this occasion.

Clive Cox does well in this type of race using the weight for age allowance and since 2009, his 3yr olds in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of up to 1m6f have won 32 of 226 (14.2% SR) starts, generating 104.5pts profit at an ROI of 46.2%.

I placed my 100/30 BOG bet on Duc de Seville with the Betfair Sportsbook, as they were the best on offer at 11pm on Sunday night. To check that’s still the case, I urge you to…

…click here for the betting on the 3.00 Brighton

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Here is today’s racecard.

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