Double Dutch, 14th September 2015
We were a length and a quarter away from landing an 18.25/1 double on Saturday, which would have rounded off a very good week for DD just perfectly.
That was the margin of defeat suffered in race 1 by This Is For You who, like most of the field and punters was surprised with the finish produced by the eventual winner, priced at 12/1.
Later, Adele defied a market drift from 5/2 to 9/2 to stay on well to win by a length at Musselburgh and whilst it was pleasing to end the week with a race winner, we came away empty handed.
Saturday’s results were as follows:
This Is For You : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Ejaazah : 6th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Adele : WON at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Maxwell : 6th at 11/5 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
670 winning selections from 2397 = 27.95%
212 winning bets in 621 days = 34.149%
P/L : +101.19pts (+8.15% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We start the new week with these…
It has been over 32 months since Cousin Khee was last seen tackling an obstacle, doing all his running since on the flat and picking up four wins, suggesting he shouldn’t be getting done for speed between the hurdles. Ground speed is obviously only part of the equation, but I’m fairly sure he’ll have been extensively schooled by his trainer Hughie Morrison and could potentially be leniently treated here today.
He was third in a Class 3 hurdle at Aintree off a mark of 123, so the 118 allocated here is very workable and in Hughie Morrison, he is trained by a man who doesn’t have that many NH runners, but is 7/24 for 27.7pts with handicap hurdlers priced at 10/1 or shorter since the start of 2010, making Cousin Khee of interest here at 3/1 BOG.
Shout It Aloud probably has as much chance of winning as the above runner, but is more attractively priced at 5/1 BOG and comes here with far fewer miles on the clock after just three runs in bumpers and three more over hurdles. He was third last time out when making his handicap bow at Newton Abbot a little over three weeks ago, despite having a relatively unsuccessful 7lb claimer in the saddle.
Since 2009, Tim Vaughan’s hurdlers are 23/113 for 59.4pts here at Stratford with today’s jockey Richard Johnson riding 13 of those winners from just 50 attempts with that resultant 26% strike rate yielding level stakles profits of 25.1pts (+50.2% ROI).
A poor looking contest, where I’m relatively happy to dismiss the chances of most runners and the short(-ish!) priced 7/4 BOG favourite Cote D’Azur seems the one to beat. He was third on his handicap debut three weeks ago, when beaten by less than three lengths over a mile at Kempton and had run really well before fading in the final furlong.
The drop back to 7f should therefore suit him better and the runner-up has since won off a mark of 61 (our runner is off 56 here). His trainer Sir Mark Prescott’s runners are 8/30 for 16.3pts in handicaps on the tapeta here with Luke Morris riding all 8 winners from 27 starts.
The tentative backup plan is the 7/1 BOG Fabulous Darling, who was a decent third on debut at Windsor six weeks ago, but hasn’t sparkled in two runs since. She was possibly unsuited by the softer ground at Ascot last time out, but switched to this surface and up in trip for a handicap debut, she does at least look interesting off a mark of 60 reduced by her jockey’s 5lb claim.
The jockey, Kieran Shoemark, is 7/16 for 17.9pts on 2/3 yr olds in Wolverhampton handicaps, whilst the yard is 19/74 for 95.3pts with runners aged 2 to 4 at odds of 5/1 to 10/1 in A/W handicaps over the last five seasons, giving us some hope of a run for our money here.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Cousin Khee / Cote D’Azur @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Cousin Khee / Fabulous Darling @ 28.13/1 (11/4 & 13/2 : Hills)
Shout It Aloud / Cote D’Azur @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Paddy)
Shout It Aloud / Fabulous Darling @ 41/1 (5/1 & 6/1 : Betfred, Paddy & Totesport)