Stat of the Day, 15th September 2015
You’ll never guess and/or believe what happened to Duc de Seville yesterday. Actually, scrap that. Of course you know what happened. He was a non-runner, just like Saturday’s pick and now the 4th in the last 8 days.
Frustrated? Moi? Pas du tout!
It’s all part of what to expect at this time of year with the rapidly changing weather we endure.
Anyway, enough of the ramble/pre-amble etc, Tuesday beckons and a trip up North to Cumbria for the last race of the day aka the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Now, should our runner step onto the track, he’ll join 11 others to tackle 1m6f on what is said to be good to firm ground for this Class 6, 3yo+ handicap and my selection from this race is the Alan Swinbank-trained, 3yr old gelding Billy Ranger, who I’ve just backed at 4/1 BOG with Bet365.
Since 2009, Alan has had 33 winners from 201 runners at this Cumbrian outpost with that 16.4% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 80.2pts at an ROI of 39.9% and we can break those 201 runners down as follows (with today’s race in mind)…
- handicaps : 19/117 (16.2% SR) for 70.4pts (+60.2% ROI)
- 3yo+ races : 10/67 (14.9% SR) for 53.8pts (+80.3% ROI)
- Class 6 : 7/39 (18% SR) for 28.9pts (+74.2% ROI)
- 3yr olds : 6/25 (24% SR) for 20.3pts (+81.2% ROI)
- at 1m6f :4/9 (44.4% SR) for 13.8pts (+153.3% ROI)
Jockey Ben Curtis has also been profitable to follow here at Carlisle this season, managing to hit nine winners from thirty (30% SR) rides, producing 71.2pts (+237.3% ROI) of level stakes profits along the way.
Of those 30 rides, he is 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 60.4pts (+262.7% ROI) in handicaps and 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 45.6pts (+414.5% ROI) riding for Alan Swinbank and this gives rise to a record reading 3/10 (30% SR) for 46.6pts (+466% ROI) on the Swinbank handicappers here at Carlisle this year.
Billy Ranger was 3rd home of 8 runners last out, when beaten by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh 11 days ago, getting outpaced over 1m4f.
Alan Swinbank’s runners who finished in the first four home last time out and then run again 4 to 15 days later have gone on to win 67 times from 297 runs (22.6% SR) since the start of 2011, generating level stakes profits of 62.7pts at an ROI of 21.1% and of those 297 runners…
- those running here at Carlisle are 6/21 (28.6% SR) for 35.4pts (+168.4% ROI
- 3yr olds are 15/53 (28.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+49.6% ROI)
- those beaten by a neck to 5 lengths LTO are 34/127 (26.8% SR) for 63.3pts (+49.9% ROI)
Of those 127 beaten by a neck to 5 lengths, 3/4 yr olds in Flat handicaps are 13/42 (31% SR) for 58.4pts (+139.1% ROI) with a record of 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 59.8pts (+230% ROI) in 3yo+ races.
Billy Ranger is down in grade and up in trip today and with him stepping up to this trip of 1m6f that looked more his thing last time out, he gets a healthy 11lbs weight for age allowance, which should make him very competitive for our 4/1 BOG bet. I’m with Bet365 for this one, but you should…
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