Double Dutch, 15th September 2015
Things started well for us on Monday, before a recently acquired foe set about throwing a spanner in the works to prevent us hitting the double.
Cousin Khee set the ball rolling with an advised 3/1 win and even Shout It Aloud’s failure to complete the race wasn’t an issue with a winner safely in the bag.
That meant we had a great chance of getting back on the sacoresheet, but main fancy and race favourite became my latest non-runner (SotD was a non-runner too, as was one of my Stat Picks selections!), which severely decimated our chances.
As it happens Fabulous Darling ran a good race, but was nowhere near good enough to trouble the leaders and the double was gone. There was, however, a silver lining in the shape of a 0.5pts single on the Cousin Khee half of the Cousin Khee / Cote D’Azur double, meaning we managed to wipe our faces and come out all square.
Monday’s results were as follows:
Cousin Khee : WON at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Shout It Aloud : PU at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Fabulous Darling : 5th at 11/2 (adv 5/2)
Cote D’Azur : non-runner (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
671 winning selections from 2400 = 27.96%
213 winning bets in 622 days = 34.24%
P/L : +101.19pts (+8.14% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
A day at the seaside on Tuesday…
There are two fairly closely matched runners in terms of price at the the head of the market for this 5-runner contest and I think the bookies have got the right two against the field.
Sealife is the 7/4 BOG favourite and has already won twice and finished as a runner-up in just four starts to date. Beaten into second place last time out, but a winner on soft ground at Nottingham two starts ago puts her in good nick and when you see she won on debut on good to firm ground, then any fears about the going should be allayed.
Trained by the in-form (17/81 in the last month) William Haggas, whose record in Flat handicaps over the last eight seasons is very profitable. With horses priced at 10/1 and shorter, he is 221/878 (25.2% SR) for 183.8pts (+20.9% ROI), of which his runners here at Yarmouth are 21/51 (41.2% SR) for 36.6pts (+71.8% ROI).
Star Storm was a winner over 1m4f at Haydock last time out and was in such command that he was able to be eased right down in the closing stages. He also hails from an in-form yard as James Fanshawe’s horses are 10/35 in the last month.
Star Storm is priced at 9/4 BOG for his handicap debut and with the yard having a record of 14/50 (28% SR) for 14pts (+28% ROI) with handicap debutants priced at 5/1 and shorter over the last four seasons, it’s easy to make a case for a horse already deemed good enough to run in Listed Class (4th at Hamilton), 3 starts and 2 months ago.
Belvoir Diva is the least exposed of the runners here, having had just four starts to date and was beaten by less than two lengths at Haydock last time out in a stronger looking handicap contest that this one, just over five weeks ago. She’s already got one win under her belt and having made a couple of handicap runs already, shouldn’t be fazed here.
As a 3yo, she gets a 1lb WFA allowance and every bit counts, I suppose and she’ll look to add a 5/2 BOG win to her trainer Chris Wall’s already impressive Yarmouth figures which stand at 48/212 (22.6% SR) for 88.9pts (+42% ROI), of which handicappers running at 5/4 to 10/1, 6 to 45 days since their last run are 29/80 (36.25% SR) for 91pts (+113.8% ROI).
Emjayem is also priced up at 5/2 BOG and produced a career best effort when just touched off at Windsor 8 days ago. He was absolutely flying home from off the pace when hindered on his approach and the evasive action probably (in my opinion!) cost him the race. Despite the break in momentum, he still only went down by a head on his first run for 114 days and only his second outing in 349 days.
He should come on for his recent run and will aim to add to his tally of 3/11 at this trip (inc a win a Gd to Fm). He’s 2/3 in fields of 7 runners or less and 2/5 when running after a break of less than 25 days. His bid will be further enhanced by the booking of Paul Hanagan in the saddle, as Paul is 20/70 (28.6% SR) for 45.1pts (+64.4% ROI) in Yarmouth handicaps over the past 4 (inc this one) seasons.
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sealife / Belvoir Diva @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Sealife / Emjayem @ 8.63/1 (7/4 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Hills)
Star Storm / Belvoir Diva @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Bet365, Coral & Hills)
Star Storm / Emjayem @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Bet365, Coral & Hills)