Stat of the Day, 16th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2015

They say that good things come to those who wait and boy, have we been kept waiting over the last week and a half! I don’t mind picking horses that get beat despite being logical selections, it’s the annoyance of the non-runners that gets my goat.

Anyway, we finally got one onto the track on Tuesday evening and Billy Ranger was worth the wait, as he made fairly light work of the step up to 1m6f to complete a great evening’s work for his jockey Ben Curtis.

He won by over two lengths, seemed to have something in reserve and was returned at 5/2, considerably shorter than our advised 4/1 BOG.

Tuesday’s piece highlighted the success both Ben and trainer Alan Swinbank had enjoyed at this track, both as individuals and as a team and so it proved: Ben hit a 4-timer including a double for Mr Swinbank. I just hope some of you took the hint and backed the others, like I did.

And so, onto Wednesday and the…

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3.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

A Class 4, one mile handicap for three year olds, where the call is a 3/1 BOG bet on the filly Postbag, trained by Henry Candy and ridden on this occasion by Fergus Sweeney, who has been in good form of late, riding 14 winners from 65 (21.5% SR) in the last month and he’s 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) in the last week.

Henry Candy’s horses have also been amongst the winners, with a consistent near-20% strike rate throughout the past six months and also more recently.

Sandown has been a happy hunting ground for the Candy handicappers, despite them not coming here as often as you’d expect.

In fact, over the last six seasons (inc this one, of course!), just 55 of the Henry Candy handicappers have graced the turf here at Esher, but 11 of them (20% SR) have been winners producing level stakes profits of 15.1pts at an ROI of 27.5% and whilst 55 is a fairly small sample size for me to lean on for SotD, the breakdown of the runners is very interesting and lends considerable weight to the selection.

With today’s race in mind, those 55 runners are…

  1. 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 27.6pts (+76.7% ROI) at trips of 7f to 1m2f
  2. 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 23.9pts (+72.3% ROI) as 3yr olds
  3. 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 21pts (+77.7% ROI) in 3yo only races
  4. 7/25 (28% SR) for 26.4pts (+105.7% ROI) at Class 4
  5. 4/24 (16.7% SR) for 8pts (+33.3% ROI) from female runners
  6. 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 27.8pts (+126.3% ROI) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  7. 3/10 (30% SR) for 20.2pts (+202% ROI) when ridden by Fergus Sweeney.

Put together you could also take note that Candy / Sandown hcp / C4 & C5 / 7f to 1m2f / 3yo’s at odds of 7/4 to 9/2 are 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 23.4pts (+292.3% ROI) with Fergus Sweeney having a 2 from 2 record that has yielded 7.86pts (+392.8% ROI)

3/1 BOG is widely available about Postbag, but I’ve gone with Coral for the insurance of a refund for a defeat by a head or less, but to see your preferred bookies’ prices…

 …click here for the betting on the 3.55 Sandown

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Here is today’s racecard.

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