Double Dutch, 16th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th September 2015

A runner-up in each race on Tuesday, left us with just one selection from each contest, both heavily affected by Rule 4 deductions.

The upshot was that we’d 2 x 0.5pt singles and 1 x 0.5pt double with the other 0.5pts of our stake returned to us. Both Star Strom and Emjayem were winners, paying out at 7/4 & 3/1 respectively and then combining for a 10/1 double to make it a good day after all!

Tuesday’s results were as follows:

Star Storm : WON at 7/4 (adv 9/4 = 27/20 after 40p R4)
Sealife : non-runner (adv 7/4)
Emjayem : WON at 3/1 (adv 5/2 = 7/4 after 30p R4)
Belvoir Diva : non-runner (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
673 winning selections from 2402 = 27.96%
214 winning bets in 623 days = 34.24%

Stakes: 1245.00pts
Returns: 1353.57pts
P/L : +108.57pts (+8.72% ROI)


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And to Wednesday…

4.35 Yarmouth :

Maljaa is clearly the one to beat here and if truth be known, it’s only the fact that he’s trading below 2/1 BOG in most places stopped him from being considered for my Stat of the Day post. He’s never been out of the top 3 in all seven starts to date, winning three times and he comes here on a hat trick after wins at Doncaster a month ago and also at Haydock 11 days ago.

Trainer Roger Varian is 10/32 in Yarmouth handicaps and his horses have won 7 of 24 races in the last week, whilst jockey Paul Hanagan is also in great form, he’s 8/34 (inc 2 winners here yesterday) in the last week and is 21/72 in handicaps on this track over the last four seasons. Hanagan for Varian at Yarmouth = 4/7 (3/4 in hcps).

Also, Roger’s horses turned out 11 to 15 days after a top 4 finish are 36/123 (27.1% SR) for 23.2pts (17.5% ROI) and then chuck in a 1lb weight for age allowance whcih will help his cause today and it really does make a strong case for Maljaa.

Humidor is the one I’d take from the rest and although I don’t expect him to win, he should be the next best and the one to benefit if the main pick has an off day. He has won two of his last three completed races, including a heavy ground success at Epsom LTO 16 days ago and his trainer George Baker has been going well of late (5/12 in the last week, 5/10 in hcps) and is a trainer to keep an eye on in Flat handicaps.

Since 2009, George’s handicappers are 69/327 (21.1% SR) for 103.2pts (+31.7% ROI) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 with an overall record here at Yarmouth of 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 25.3pts (+64.8% ROI), suggesting that Humidor might well be worth an E/W punt at the very least at 13/2 BOG.


6.10 Kelso :

A nice looking contest here and there’s little to choose between the two I’ve took against the field, so in alphabetical order…

Purple n Gold represents the inform Pipe/Scudamore combo who are already 5 from 10 this month and since the start of 2014 have won 43 of 164 (26.2% SR) chases together, producing 94.2pts (+57.4% ROI) profit. This horse was a winner at Haydock in March and then finished 33408 in five starts before a return to winning ways on his chase debut at Worcester last time out, 24 days ago.

That return to form sparks my interest further, as handicap chasers who won LTO 11 to 25 days ago after 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts are 90/397 (27.7% SR) for 101pts (+25.5% ROI) at odds of 6/4 to 11/1 over the last five years and at 3/1 BOG, Purple n Gold fits that remit perfectly.

Robins Command is currently priced at 100/30 BOG and I’ve gone with him here too, as his career profile seems tailor made for ther job in hand today. He comes here in good heart, having won at Perth last time out, 9 days ago taking his record in hcp chases to 7 wins from 17 (41.2% SR) and the following data will explain why the market likes him.

Of the above 7/17 record in hcp chases, he is 7/14 in fields of 8 runners or less, he has won 7 of 13 races at odds of 7/4 to 9/2, he’s 7/12 under today’s jockey Craig Nichol and has won five of the seven starts made 6 to 19 days after his last run.

Robins Command is 5/10 on Good/Gd to Fm ground (1/1 G to F) and has also won 4 of 6 races in the July to September period with an overall record here at Kelso of two wins from four (all over C&D). If you take some the above together, you see that he’s 5/5 when ridden by Craig Nichol in a handicap chase of 4 to 8 runners at odds of 7/4 to 9/2 6 to 19 days after his last outing.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Maljaa / Purple n Gold @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
Maljaa / Robins Command @ 11.46/1 (15/8 & 10/3 : Boylesports & Seanie Mac)
Humidor / Purple n Gold @ 29/1 (13/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor, Coral)
Humidor / Robins Command @ 31.5/1 (13/2 & 10/3 : Bet365, Coral)

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