Stat of the Day, 17th September 2015
Postbag failed to cope with the conditions at a sodden Sandown on Wednesday afternoon, leaving me wishing he’d joined the other four runners to be withdrawn from the contest. He was already weakening out of contention with over a furlong to run and at the point, Fergus Sweeney made the right call and eased off the gas.
This meant he finished 6th of the 7 runners, suffering a bigger defeat than I’d anticipated, but I’m a firm believer that there’s no point busting a gut on a horse clearly destined to not even make the frame.
He drifted in the market as the weather deteriorated and was sent off at 7/2, half a point longer than advised. The weather claimed half of the Yarmouth card and has taken all of Thursday’s fixture, which is a pity, as I was keen on Distain at a decent price, so I’ll switch my attentions to the…
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This is a Class 5 handicap for 3yr olds and upwards and the trip is 7 furlongs on good to soft ground that is deemed good in places. Thirteen runners are declared for this contest and the one that caught my eye was Nice Thoughts, who I think looks overpriced at the 11/2 BOG on offer from sibling sites Betfred and Totesport.
Nice Thoughts is trained by James Tate, whose yard is ticking over nicely without breaking any records and a return of 4 winners from 16 over the last three weeks is decent enough and we’re lucky that an in-form jockey has been booked too.
Danny Tudhope has actually ridden ten winners from just 35 rides (28.6% SR) in the last 25 days and whilst that says he’s not overworked, he certainly knows how to get a horse home. He also does rather well here at Ayr and has already landed 6 winners from 23 (26.1% SR) at this venue this year with those runners generating level stakes profits of 17.9pts (+78% ROI).
More long-term, his record here at Ayr in handicaps on horses priced in the 7/4 to 7/1 (covering my bases!) range stands at 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 15.9pts (+20.6% ROI).
Nice Thoughts may well have only won one of his nine starts to date, but since finishing 6th on debut at Ripon 15 weeks ago, has finished in the first three home in each of his subsequent eight starts (33233312), showing a remarkable level of consistency and earning him a berth as a qualifier today in a micro-system I’ve unimaginatively entitled “Knocking on the Flat door”
What I look for is horses fulfilling the following criteria (which always looks more complicated in print than it really is)…
UK Flat races / 7f to 1m4f / 2 to 5 yr olds / finished second or third LTO 6 to 30 days ago / top 3 finishes in the two runs prior to that LTO run.
It really is simple to follow, bur cumbersome to explain. Anyway, since the start of the 2012 season, we’re looking at 298 winners from 1387 (21.5% SR) qualifiers for profits of 323.9pts at an ROI of 23.4%, which is decent off such a large sample size, but yes, I know some of you don’t want 350-plus qualifiers per season from just one micro, so let’s dissect…
- 3 yr olds are 219/1000 (21.9% SR) for 269.9pts (+27% ROI)
- Class 5 runners are 110/418 (28.8% SR) for 122pts (+29.8% ROI)
- runners over 7 furlongs are 57/256 (22.3% SR) for 113.5pts (+44.3% ROI)
- those running here at Ayr are 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 5.9pts (21.7% ROI)
If you wanted to combine some of the above and get around 45 to 50 bets per season, you could just take the Class 5, 3 yr olds at 7f to 1m1f. That gives you 57/174 (32.8% SR) and 89.3pts (+51.3% ROI) profit.
Nice Thoughts has lost several races from winning positions over a mile, getting caught late on, as was the case when beaten by a neck at Hamilton a week ago and it is anticipated that a drop back in trip and the couple of pounds weight allowance for his age will help get him home this time.
I took from 11/2 BOG Totesport and the market average seems to be around the 5/1 BOG mark, but even that could prove generous if things go to plan for us. You can see what your regular bookie is offering when you…
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