Double Dutch, 17th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th September 2015

Like Tuesday before it, Wednesday was another strange, but profitable day. We lost one runner from each race on Tuesday, but yesterday we lost a whole race as Yarmouth was forced to abandon mid-meeting and they’ve lost today’s card too.

This meant all our eggs were in the one basket and we headed for the 6.10 Kelso for 2 x 1pt singles…

…where Robins Command ran out a 4/1 winner for us with our other runner, Purple n Gold in third place, enabling us to continue our slow recovery from a fairly long slump in July/August.

The recent run stands at 6 profitable days from the last nine for 21pts profit.

We’re still someway short of our highest point to date, but we’re working towards it!

Wednesday’s results were as follows:

Maljaa : non-runner (adv 15/8)
Humidor : non-runner (adv 13/2)
Robins Command: WON at 4/1 (adv 100/30)
Purple n Gold : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)

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Results to date:
674 winning selections from 2404 = 27.96%
215 winning bets in 624 days = 34.24%

Stakes: 1247.00pts
Returns: 1358.57pts
P/L : +111.57pts (+8.95% ROI)


Thursday offers us a chance of 3 wins on the bounce, and these are my hopefuls…

5.30 Pontefract :

In maidens, I like to look at sire stats and also the records of the trainers at the specific track and that has led me to the following…

I Zingari is very interesting here returning from a breeak of just over five months since finishing a decent third at Windsor. He was a bit slow away that day, was later denied a clear run and had to be switched right out for a late run, yet was still only beaten by two lengths over this trip and the three horses immediately behind him have all gone on to win in his absence.

He’s a well bred colt by Dansili whose offspring are 71/417 (17% SR) at trips of 1m1f to 1m3f over the last three years and he’s trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has a long-term 27.% strike rate here at Pontefract and he’s 6/28 (21.4% SR) here in the last three seasons, so the winners keep coming. His Pontefract maidens are 16/58 (32.1% SR) and it is hoped that I Zingari will be the latest at 100/30 BOG (Betfair).

At 22/1 last time out, High Baroque was second at Wolverhampton by three quarters of a length and was placed in between two more experienced and well fancied runners (odds of 5/4 and 5/6!). The beaten odds on favourite has improved a place to second on her latest run, but in fairness to her, that was a further step up in class to run at Chester.

High Baroque is trained by Richard Fahey and in the last three seasons, the yard has had 32 winners from 130 (24.6% SR) runners here at Pontefract with male runners winning 20 of 76 (26.3% SR), 3yr olds are 13/54 (24.1% SR) whilst in maidens, the Fahey runners here are 11/36 (30.6% SR), suggesting a decent run for our money at 5/2 BOG (Paddy).


7.50 Chelmsford :

Ben Hall comes here in good nick, having narrowly been beaten at Wolverhampton three weeks ago, before running out a winner by half a length here a week later. That win makes him the only course and distance winner in this field and he was a lot more comfortable than that short margin suggests. He came from a wide draw, encountered traffic mid-race and then idled when in front.

He’s also got the benefit of Luke Morris in the saddle today and Luke has a 17.2% strike rate in handicaps on this course, suggesting a good run from Ben Hall at 11/4 BOG (gen). Strangely, he’s also only trainer Ruth Carr’s fourth runner at this venue, but with two wins from three (inc this runner LTO) so far, she’s made a good start here.

Showtime Blues was just held off by a head over 7f at Kempton eight days ago and now drops back in trip to try again off the same mark. His trainer Amanda Perrett does well in A/W handicaps, saddling up 43 winners from 280 runners (15.4% SR) for 38.9pts (+13.9% ROI) since the start of 2010 with Class 5/6 runners winning 28 of 183 (15.3% SR) for 33.8pts (+18.5% ROI).

Showtime Blues was sired by Showcasing and although the majoirty of his progeny’s runs have been on turf, they have actually gone really well on artificial surfaces too, winning 22 of 116 (19% SR) A/W outings for profits of 81pts at an ROI of 69.8%. The 5/6f sprinters are 13/65 (20% SR) for 93.5pts (143.9% ROI) giving confidence to a 4/1 BOG (Ladbrokes) bet here.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

High Baroque / Ben Hall @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Paddy)
High Baroque / Showtime Blues @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : Paddy)
I Zingari / Ben Hall @ 15.25/1 (10/3 & 11/4 : Betfair SB)
I Zingari / Showtime Blues @ 18.5/1 (10/3 & 7/2 : Betfair SB)

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