Stat of the Day, 18th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2015

I’ve not many nice thoughts about the performance of Nice Thoughts at Ayr on Thursday, as he was a very disappointing 10th of 12 runners, despite looking at one stage that he might very well get involved in the shake-up.

Unfortunately that wasn’t to be and he faded away very quickly in the final furlong. I was right in him being overpriced at 11/2, as he went off at 7/2, having touched 3/1 at one point, but I’d have been unhappy to have backed that run at 3/1!

Friday is, of course, another day and we go again. This time, it’s the …

2.45 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

A Class 3 handicap over a mile and a half on Soft ground, where my pick of the 11 runners is the William Haggas-trained Satellite, who is currently available at 4/1 non-BOG with Ladbrokes (they don’t offer BOG until 9.00am!) or you can get 7/2 BOG in a couple of places.

In the last 30 days, backing short-priced William Haggas handicappers has been a successful venture, as those priced at 4/1 or shorter have won 19 of 37 (51.4% SR) races for level stakes profits of 24.4pts at an ROI of 66% and who doesn’t want a fiver back from every £3 wagered? Incidentally, today’s jockey, Pat Cosgrave is 4/10 (40% SR) for 2.88pts (+28.8% ROI) from those 37 runners.

I do like to follow Mr Haggas in flat handicaps, especially those that fit my usual betting style, ie nothing below 6/4 and not much in double digit odds, so by sticking to those priced at 6/4 to 10/1, we get 180 winners from 784 (23% SR) runners over the last 8 seasons for profits of 194.1pts at an ROI of 24.8%.

Once again, I know you don’t all want 100 bets per season from one micro, so we’ll break the 784 runners to date down as follows (with this race in mind, of course!)…

  • those running 1 to 5 weeks since their last outing are 126/549 (23% SR) for 153.8pts (+28% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 70/250 (28% SR) for 88.9pts (+35.6% ROI)
  • 4 yr olds are 48/176 (27.3% SR) for 76.7pts (+43.6% ROI)
  • soft ground runners are 19/89 (21.4% SR) for 22.1pts (+24.8% ROI)

All good solid profitable angles, but if you try to combine those specific filters, you don’t end up with very many bets to place, but a slight loosening of the parameters gives a nice 20 to 25 bets a year micro as follows…

Haggas handicappers priced 6/4 to 10/1, aged 3 or 4, running at Classes 3 to 5, 7 to 35 days after a top 3 finish last time out. Such runners are 52/167 (31.1% SR) for 69.2pts (+41.4% ROI) profit with those running on soft ground winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 12.1pts (+55% ROI).

Satellite absolutely romped home last time out with an easy 4 length victory without being ridden, that was also on this track on soft ground but over 1m 5.5f, yet neither the drop back in trip nor a 7lb rise in weights should be his downfall. Half of his 10 rivals haven’t raced on soft ground before and the other five have just 2 placed finishes between them, whereas our boy has that last time out win in addition to a runner-up effort from just two attempts.

He was a runner-up at Doncaster on his other soft ground run, staying on really strongly over an inadequate 1m2f, where he just failed by a shorthead to rein in the winner and this trip is more suitable. He has also got one win and one runner-up finish under Pat Cosgrave and all the signs are there for a big run from Satellite.

I actually think this one will shorten in price, so I’ve taken the 4/1 non-BOG from Ladbrokes, but you can make your own decision after you…

…click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newbury

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Here is today’s racecard.

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