Stat of the Day, 18th September 2015
I’ve not many nice thoughts about the performance of Nice Thoughts at Ayr on Thursday, as he was a very disappointing 10th of 12 runners, despite looking at one stage that he might very well get involved in the shake-up.
Unfortunately that wasn’t to be and he faded away very quickly in the final furlong. I was right in him being overpriced at 11/2, as he went off at 7/2, having touched 3/1 at one point, but I’d have been unhappy to have backed that run at 3/1!
Friday is, of course, another day and we go again. This time, it’s the …
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
A Class 3 handicap over a mile and a half on Soft ground, where my pick of the 11 runners is the William Haggas-trained Satellite, who is currently available at 4/1 non-BOG with Ladbrokes (they don’t offer BOG until 9.00am!) or you can get 7/2 BOG in a couple of places.
In the last 30 days, backing short-priced William Haggas handicappers has been a successful venture, as those priced at 4/1 or shorter have won 19 of 37 (51.4% SR) races for level stakes profits of 24.4pts at an ROI of 66% and who doesn’t want a fiver back from every £3 wagered? Incidentally, today’s jockey, Pat Cosgrave is 4/10 (40% SR) for 2.88pts (+28.8% ROI) from those 37 runners.
I do like to follow Mr Haggas in flat handicaps, especially those that fit my usual betting style, ie nothing below 6/4 and not much in double digit odds, so by sticking to those priced at 6/4 to 10/1, we get 180 winners from 784 (23% SR) runners over the last 8 seasons for profits of 194.1pts at an ROI of 24.8%.
Once again, I know you don’t all want 100 bets per season from one micro, so we’ll break the 784 runners to date down as follows (with this race in mind, of course!)…
- those running 1 to 5 weeks since their last outing are 126/549 (23% SR) for 153.8pts (+28% ROI)
- LTO winners are 70/250 (28% SR) for 88.9pts (+35.6% ROI)
- 4 yr olds are 48/176 (27.3% SR) for 76.7pts (+43.6% ROI)
- soft ground runners are 19/89 (21.4% SR) for 22.1pts (+24.8% ROI)
All good solid profitable angles, but if you try to combine those specific filters, you don’t end up with very many bets to place, but a slight loosening of the parameters gives a nice 20 to 25 bets a year micro as follows…
…Haggas handicappers priced 6/4 to 10/1, aged 3 or 4, running at Classes 3 to 5, 7 to 35 days after a top 3 finish last time out. Such runners are 52/167 (31.1% SR) for 69.2pts (+41.4% ROI) profit with those running on soft ground winning 6 of 22 (27.3% SR) for 12.1pts (+55% ROI).
Satellite absolutely romped home last time out with an easy 4 length victory without being ridden, that was also on this track on soft ground but over 1m 5.5f, yet neither the drop back in trip nor a 7lb rise in weights should be his downfall. Half of his 10 rivals haven’t raced on soft ground before and the other five have just 2 placed finishes between them, whereas our boy has that last time out win in addition to a runner-up effort from just two attempts.
He was a runner-up at Doncaster on his other soft ground run, staying on really strongly over an inadequate 1m2f, where he just failed by a shorthead to rein in the winner and this trip is more suitable. He has also got one win and one runner-up finish under Pat Cosgrave and all the signs are there for a big run from Satellite.
I actually think this one will shorten in price, so I’ve taken the 4/1 non-BOG from Ladbrokes, but you can make your own decision after you…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS