Double Dutch, 18th September 2015
With around a furlong to run of Thursday’s second race, I thought we were going to land ourselves a nice 17.75/1 double, as the well fancied (11/4 to 15/8) Ben Hall loomed up alongside the pacesetters, but unfortunately his challenge was short but not too sweet as he quickly faded from contention to finish third, beaten by just over two lengths.
This was a real pity, as High Baroque had earlier defied a drift in the market from out advised 5/2 out to a very attractive 4/1 as she continued Ricahrd Fahey’s excellent record at Pontefract by winning by the best part of two lengths.
Thursday’s results were as follows:
High Baroque : WON at 4/1 (adv 5/2)
I Zingari : 6th at 5/2 (adv 10/3)
Ben Hall : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 11/4)
Showtime Blues : 4th at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
675 winning selections from 2408 = 28.03%
215 winning bets in 625 days = 34.40%
P/L : +109.57pts (+8.77% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
This is how I’m approaching Friday, which looks pretty tough…
Sergeant Thunder rounded off his hurdles campaign wth a win and two third positions and then won on his chasing debut last time out over this trip at Worcester. That win came despite an absence of 328 days, which suggests that the break of 104 days since that run shouldn’t affect him too much today.
At 6/4 BOG, Sergeant Thunder is a little shorter than I like to put up, but he will get back as Paul Nicholls is known to do well at this track. His chasers have a good 32% strike rate here on this course and since the start of 2012, those priced at 7/2 or shorter have won 15 of 37 (40.5% SR) races.
Easily Pleased is a little longer in the market at 5/2 BOG and has far more experience over fences and is having a great year so far, finishing 223211, having won back to back course and distance contests in the past 11 weeks (LTO 27 days ago). Martin Hill’s 9yr old is 3/9 at the track and 3/8 over course and distance, 3/8 in fields of 3 to 6 runners and 2/4 in a hood.
It’s also worth noting that Male Class 3/4 chasers aged 6 to 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter who won a hcp chase by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days ago, won again on 154 of 498 (30.9% SR) runs since 2010.
Berland was a 2 length winner over this trip when last seen winning at Leicester in June, taking his tally to two wins and two places from just six runs. And whilst he’s been off the track for 109 days since that run, the 2nd, 4th, 5th and 7th placed horses from that 8-runner race have all gone to win, including successes at Classes 2 & 3, so he’ll be hoping the form holds out.
Michael Bell’s horses returning from a break of 90 to 180 days have won 6 of 15 races (40% SR) when returning to the fray at 6/1 or shorter since 2010 and at 5/2 BOG, Berland will aim to make it 7 from 16.
One Pekan won off a mark of 83 on heavy ground last season, but has been in the grip of the assessor ever since. He was, however, only beaten by a head at Nottingham recently as his mark fell back down and now racing off 84 with a 7lb claimer on board should at least be competitive at a decent price of 7/1 BOG in a race that doesn’t look too deep on quality.
Trainer Roger Varian is 10/37 in the last fortnight and 6/20 in the past week, so the yard is firing well and this is his only runner of the day and will be hoping that One Pekan can improve his excellent record here at Newbury which stands at 13/80 (16.25% SR) for 88.2pts (+110.3% ROI)
For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sergeant Thunder / Berland @ 7.75/1 (6/4 & 5/2 : Paddy)
Sergeant Thunder / One Pekan @ 19/1 (6/4 & 7/1 : BetVictor & Paddy)
Easily Pleased / Berland @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2: Bet365, BetVictor & Paddy)
Easily Pleased / One Pekan @ 27/1 (5/2 & & 7/1 : Bet365 & Hills)