Double Dutch, 19th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 19th September 2015

Close, but not close enough, I’m afraid, on Thursday. A runner-up, two thirds and a fourth suggest good, but not great runs from my selections and that’s probably a fair enough assessment of the day’s action.

Having advised One Pekan at 7/1, I couldn’t resist a small E/W bet at what IO saw to be an over-inflated price, so I was delighted with his third place finish.

Friday’s results were as follows:

Easily Pleased : 2nd at 11/4 (adv 5/2)
Sergeant Thunder : 3rd at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
One Pekan : 3rd at 11/2 (adv 7/1)
Berland : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
675 winning selections from 2412 = 27.99%
215 winning bets in 626 days = 34.35%

Stakes: 1251.00pts
Returns: 1358.57pts
P/L : +107.57pts (+8.60% ROI)

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Last picks of the week are…

5.00 Newmarket :

Bateel comes here with a perfect 2/2 record so far, having won over 1m2f on soft ground at Salisbury on debut back in May, followed up by a win three weeks ago when stepped up to today’s 1m4f trip a Goodwood. She ran on well that day to win by two lengths, despite missing the break and racing in rear until 2f from home.

David Simcock’s 3yr old runners in 3yo+ handicaps have a 26.2% strike rate over the last four seasons and Bateel is priced at 9/4 BOG to become the latest success.

Distain will make life difficult for her, I think. She’s ultra consistent, having finished 2122 in her four starts to date, the latest run coming at York a fortnight ago when beaten by just three quarters of a length by the far more experienced and race-savvy El Beau. In fairness to Distain, that was a 19-runner handicap having only previously raced in fields of 9, 5 and 4.

She encountered traffic issues that day on her way to the finish and this smaller field should make life easier. She’s up 4lbs for that run, but the in-form (6/20 on the last week) Tom Marquand takes a valuable 3lbs off, suggesting a decent run from Distain at 3/1 BOG.

2 to 5 yr olds on the Flat up to 1m4f who were 2nd or 3rd LTO, 6 to 30 days ago and also had top 3 finishes in each of their previous two races have a 21.3% strike rate over the last 4 seasons : 298/1399 for 311.9pts  at an ROI of 22.3%.


7.40 Wolverhampton :

Yorkindred Spirit was a winner over two miles at Beverley back in July and showed her versatility by dropping down in trip to 1m4f to win here over course and distance last out (a fortnight ago). She’s top rated (OR) here, buts gets a very helpful/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance, an allowance her trainer Mark Johnston is one of the best at getting the most from.

Her trainer also has a 20.5% strike rate here at Wolverhampton and when Joe Fanning rides his handicappers here over trips beyond 9 furlongs, they win 25% of the time, suggesting we could do a lot worse than a 5/2 BOG bet on Yorkindred Spirit.

Kristjano is making only his third start, but showed plenty of promise when fourth at Leicester last time out. He’s had a three month break since that contest, where he was outpaced late on and he looked like he needed a better test of stamina, which he’ll now get stepping up to 1m4f, but he does drop in class to make the task slightly less onerous on his handicap debut.

His trainer, Chris Wall has an 18.6% strike rate when dropping handicappers down a grade over the last 8 years, 25.8% of his A/W handicap debutants have been winners over the last 5 years and he has a strike rate of 23.8% in handicaps here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2012 and if you like Kristjano, he currently trades at 7/2 BOG.

For the benefit of brevity, I’ve purposefully not expanded on the stats I’ve based the selections upon, but I’m always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Bateel / Yorkindred Spirit @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Bateel / Kristjano @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Betfair Sports)
Distain / Yorkindred Spirit @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2: Bet365)
Distain / Kristjano @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : Betfair Sports & Paddy)

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