Stat of the Day, 19th September 2015
Not too long ago, it seemed like I could do wrong and horses that looked beaten were rallying and just getting up late on to win for us.
I did warn (several times!) that such luck won’t always be with us and now that I’m scratching about a little bit for form, our runners seem to be contriving to throw races away.
I’m very reluctant to criticise jockeys who do a brilliant job under difficult circumstances, so I’m going to diplomatically suggest that Pat Cosgrave thought he’d done enough on Satellite at Newbury yesterday and that the horse had enough left in case an extra effort was needed.
Unfortunately, neither was the case and hindsight (which is not only wonderful, but always correct!) now suggests Pat should have kicked on once clear and put the race to bed without giving the eventual winner any encouragement or hope of winning.
Bottom line is that we lost one that we should have won and these things happen, our 4/1 advised odds were reduced to 17/5 via a 15p Rule 4 deduction, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP, which is reassuring at least.
I, however, prefer pounds in the bank to a reassuring hug, so let’s see if we can at least close the week out with the winner of the…
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Mark Johnston is the trainer in focus here and of his 13 runners set to race around the country today, just Powderhorn has been sent here to contest a race Mark won last year with Flash Fire and you can get 3/1 BOG about him repeating that success.
Powderhorn comes here off the back of a win on similarly good to soft ground over today’s trip at Chester just eight days ago, when he accounted for three previous course and distance winners.
Since 2008, Mark’s Catterick runners priced in the 6/4 to 6/1 region, where I do most of my betting nowadays, have won 31 of 127 (24.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 20.4pts at a respectable ROI of 16.1%. With today’s runner/race conditions in mind, we can see that of those 127 runners…
- those running within 6 to 30 days of their last outing are 25/86 (29.1% SR) for 31.7pts (+36.9% ROI)
- handicappers are 16/74 (21.6% SR) for 15.2pts (+20.6% ROI)
- those running over the 7f trip are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 12.6pts (+25.8% ROI)
- Class 4 runners are 9/40 (22.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+15.1% ROI)
That recent win for Powderhorn last time out was his first effort on Good to Soft ground, but the cut in the turf didn’t prevent him from making all to win and with no other confirmed front runners here, he might well attempt to burn his rivals off quite early and if allowed a soft lead, could well be difficult to catch and then pass.
He has won two of his five runs at this trip and has been placed worse than third (33121) and has already won under today’s jockey Franny Norton. He has finished 311 in fields of 7 to 11 runners, has a win and a runner-up berth from two runs after less than 10 days rest and has also finished 311 in his three races when asked to go left handed.
He’s in good form on a track favoured by his trainer and the signs are that Powderhorn will give us a good run for our money at 3/1 BOG. At midnight, at least seven bookies were offering that price. I chose once again to use Coral for their beaten by a head insurance, but for a full view of the market, please…
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