Stat of the Day, 21st September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2015

No joy again on Saturday as Powderhorn’s run typified the way the most of this month has gone so far : disappointing.

Our 3/1 shot was sent off as 2/1 favoutie (smashed the SP again!) and was admitrtedly left short of room at the vital point of the race, but the honest truth is that he wasn’t picking up quick enough any way and although only beaten by three lengths or so, could only manage 5th place.

I’m hoping a new week brings about a change in fortunes, after all Mondays have been very good to us in recent weeks or so I’m told!

I’m certainly hoping that’s the case in the…

5.00 Leicester :

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Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Where at 11.45pm, I placed a 7/2 BOG bet on Richard Fahey’s 3yr old gelding Stardrifter.

Mr Fahey is bang in form with 14 winners fronm his 70 runners (20% SR) over the last week producing level stakes profits of 42.5pts (+60.7% ROI) with his handicappers winning 10 of 48 (20.8% SR) for 52pts (+108.3% ROI).

His runners also tend to go well here at Leicester, with a record since the start of 2010 that reads 22/113 (19.5% SR) for 191.5pts (+169.5% ROI), broken down as follows…

  • handicaps : 16/67 (23.9% SR) for 106.2pts (+158.5% ROI)
  • odds of 6/4 to 6/1 : 13/49 (26.5% SR) for 9.4pts (+19.2% ROI)
  • 3yr olds : 9/45 (20% SR) for 42.9pts (+95.3% ROI)
  • 8.5f trip : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.6pts (+132.8% ROI)
  • ridden by David Nolan : 2/7 (28.6% SR) for 96.4pts (+1376.6% ROI)

This 3yr old gelding has been in good nick himself, too, finishing 1053122 in seven runs this season as a three year old handicapper and was only beaten by three quarters of a length last time out (22 days ago at Beverley). He gets a useful 4lbs weight for age allowance here as he bids to turn his last two runner-up results into a winning run like he did three starts ago.

Stardrifter‘s last three runs finishing 122 make him one of my in form flat horses who are knocking on the door and what I look for is a 3 to 5yr old running on the Flat 6 to 30 days after their last outing over trips of 7f to 1m4f in a race that 3yr olds are eligible to enter.

In addition to the above, they must have finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and also been in the first three home in each of their two previous runs. So, basically three top 3 finishes on the bounce without winning LTO!

Since the start of the 2012 campaign, such horses are 298/1407 (21.2% SR) for 303.9pts (+21.6% ROI), broken down again as follows…

  • 3 yr olds  : 219/1016 (21.6% SR) for 253.9pts (+25% ROI)
  • those running 21 to 30 since the last run : 105/500 (21% SR) for 221.5pts (+44.3% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners : 118/417 (28.3% SR) for 115pts (+27.6% ROI)

Put them all together and 3 yr olds running at Class 5, 21 to 30 days after their last outing are 33/99 (33.33% SR) for 50.2pts (+50.7% ROI) with two winners from six here at Leicester.

At least seven firms were offering 7/2 BOG about Stardrifter at 11.45pm on Sunday night, but once again I’ve gone with Coral as they refund any defeat by a head or less, but to choose another bookie, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Leicester

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Here is today’s racecard.

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